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To: Ken98 who wrote (18615)	9/15/2000 2:44:34 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<Imagine what a hurricane going into Baytown/Pasadena, Texas would do to those refining margins? Even if it caused no damage and it only caused a 2-3 day shutdown.>> Exactly, this is the sort of disruption that EVERYONE in the business was worried about when they said "if everything doesn't go perfectly, we have a crisis". A few days output from the Gulf, in terms of refinery output, Crude and NG production would have massive consequences at this point. The worst case scenario would be a slow moving storm that stalls, say, 300 miles SSW of Beaumont, then moves inland near Baytown. You'd disrupt offshore production throughout the Louisiana and Texas fields, then you'd have to deal with physical damages to the refinery and pipeline complexes. The chart in today's contrary investor on numbers of working refineries in the U.S. (159 now vs 384 in 1980) was absolutely staggering, and the chickens are assuredly coming home to roost this winter....