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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (58976)	9/15/2000 8:40:06 AM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Relief Rally On The Drop In Energy Costs US Aug CPI Energy Prices -2.9%; Food Prices +0.2% US Real Average Weekly Earnings +0.1% In Aug =DJ Data Snap: Aug CPI Show Drop For First Time Since 1986 ====================================================== August Consumer Price Index !Surprise: No ! Key Numbers: !Trend: ! Aug July !Low Inflation ! CPI Index: -0.1% +0.2% !Consensus: ! Core Index: +0.2% +0.2% !Overall: ! Energy: -2.9% +0.1% ! +0.2% ! ====================================================== By Joseph Rebello and Phil McCarty Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. consumer prices dropped in August for the first time in more than 14 years amid a slump in energy and transportation prices, solidifying investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year. The Consumer Price Index declined 0.1% in August, marking the first drop since April 1986, the Labor Department said Friday. Falling energy prices accounted for most of the decline, but the index showed prices moderating in most key categories as well. Still, the core index, which excludes food and energy items, rose 0.2% for a fifth consecutive month. The decline in the overall index surprised Wall Street. But it should have little effect on stocks and bonds Friday because investors had their eye on the core index, which rose precisely as expected. The Fed, moreover, has signaled recently that it is willing to test the limits of economic growth so long as inflation remains tame. Wall Street, as a result, has effectively ruled out the possibility of another interest-rate increase this year. The Fed, whose top policymakers next meet on Oct. 3 to decide the course of interest rates, has raised its key federal funds rate to a nine-and-a-half-year high of 6.5% over the last 15 months. But since May it has been reconsidering the need for additional increases. In June, Fed policymakers described the risk of an inflationary outbreak as "remote." Since then they've raised their estimate of how much the U.S. economy is capable of growing without igniting inflation. Individual policymakers' estimates of the maximum growth rate vary from 3.5% to 6%, but even the Fed's most hawkish policymakers no longer see inflation as an immediate threat. The U.S. economy, after all, is expected to slow to a growth rate of less than 3% in the third quarter from 5.2% in the second quarter. Over the last month evidence has grown that the U.S. economy, now in the 10th year of its longest-ever expansion, is slowing at last. Retail sales, for example, grew just 0.2% in August after a 0.8% increase in July. The number of unemployment-benefit claims filed by U.S. workers has been rising steadily, reaching a 21-month high of 324,000 last week. The U.S. producer price index, meanwhile, showed that prices declined nearly across the board in August. The Labor Department said Friday that falling energy and transportation prices, which together account for about 25% of the consumer-price index, accounted for most of the decline in the overall index. Energy prices fell 2.9%, the biggest decline in more than nine years. That included a 6% drop in gasoline prices, also the biggest in nine years. Transportation prices fell 1.1% after a 0.3% decline in July. The restraining effect of energy prices on the overall index, however, is expected to be temporary. Crude-oil prices this month have risen to a 10-year high, and analysts expect that acceleration to boost energy and overall consumer prices for the month. Still, prices moderated in most other categories in August. Housing prices, which account for nearly 40% of the index, grew 0.2% after a 0.4% increase in July. Food prices grew 0.2% after a 0.5% increase in July. Prices of tobacco and smoking products fell 1.6%. But prices of apparel and medical care surged: medical care prices rose 0.4% after a 0.3% increase in July; apparel prices rose 0.2% after a 1% decline in July. In a separate report, the Labor Department said average weekly earnings of U.S. workers, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.1% in August. The gain was caused by a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and a 0.1% decline in the CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers, which was offset by a 0.3% decline in average weekly hours. -By Joseph Rebello and Phil McCarty; 202-862-9279

To: Les H who wrote (58976)	9/15/2000 9:32:24 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Market/Sector Breadth Journal: September 14, 2000 (4010 stocks) percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Sep 14 48 55 55 50 587 - 549 479 - 351 159 - 84 Sep 13 44 53 54 49 513 - 689 416 - 389 146 - 74 Sep 12 45 54 54 49 543 - 761 439 - 412 157 - 87 Sep 11 46 56 55 49 636 - 725 514 - 399 188 - 75 Sep 8 51 59 56 50 638 - 645 504 - 359 165 - 73 Sep 1 64 64 59 51 969 - 319 735 - 203 162 - 44 Aug 25 55 59 53 49 698 - 446 545 - 220 112 - 47 Aug 18 53 55 51 48 564 - 493 324 - 292 78 - 75 Aug 11 57 47 48 47 788 - 401 479 - 355 136 - 96 Aug 4 47 39 46 45 640 - 474 426 - 379 128 - 98 Jul 28 23 29 40 42 192 - 1662 150 - 1094 60 - 212 Nasdaq 100 percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Sep 14 29 40 50 49 5 - 17 4 - 9 0 - 0 Sep 13 26 41 57 49 8 - 10 6 - 5 3 - 0 Sep 12 12 29 44 46 5 - 40 5 - 17 3 - 0 Sep 11 13 32 50 48 3 - 46 2 - 15 1 - 0 Sep 8 24 51 58 48 4 - 31 3 - 11 1 - 1 Sep 1 87 82 74 58 36 - 3 34 - 2 6 - 0 Aug 25 74 75 66 55 26 - 7 24 - 5 1 - 0 Aug 18 66 68 51 52 20 - 9 12 - 4 3 - 0 Aug 11 51 37 43 46 9 - 13 2 - 13 1 - 2 Aug 4 45 27 43 47 10 - 7 4 - 7 1 - 2 Jul 28 7 15 28 43 0 - 67 0 - 45 0 - 11 S & P 100 percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Sep 14 41 47 59 55 5 - 20 3 - 15 1 - 5 Sep 13 45 49 62 54 17 - 13 13 - 9 4 - 3 Sep 12 48 52 57 55 22 - 22 17 - 15 6 - 3 Sep 11 50 53 58 55 25 - 24 23 - 18 10 - 4 Sep 8 50 51 59 56 23 - 25 18 - 18 7 - 3 Sep 1 48 54 62 55 15 - 15 12 - 10 4 - 3 Aug 25 50 61 65 60 13 - 10 11 - 5 5 - 0 Aug 18 47 68 67 61 13 - 12 10 - 5 2 - 1 Aug 11 83 73 73 58 28 - 1 23 - 1 6 - 0 Aug 4 68 56 62 56 28 - 9 24 - 7 9 - 3 Jul 28 36 42 42 54 11 - 26 7 - 11 1 - 4 percent stocks over MA ********* 20-day highs/lows ********** sector (num) 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 09/14 09/13 09/12 ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------- --------- --------- Aerospace/Defense (50) 48 56 70 64 5 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 6 Apparel (89) 51 51 57 58 14 - 3 14 - 4 17 - 7 Automotive (37) 25 25 44 25 2 - 11 0 - 6 2 - 10 Banks (112) 82 85 87 76 40 - 2 34 - 2 33 - 3 Biotechnology (145) 39 65 63 61 19 - 2 14 - 9 10 - 11 Building/Constr (108) 36 47 50 50 9 - 14 11 - 11 12 - 14 Chemical (65) 29 29 37 38 4 - 19 3 - 12 3 - 13 Commercial Svcs (200) 41 48 44 40 23 - 18 16 - 16 19 - 13 Computer Svcs (58) 43 48 43 26 10 - 5 6 - 5 1 - 7 Computer Equip (161) 34 54 54 36 17 - 15 13 - 15 13 - 21 Conglomerates (31) 32 35 58 45 3 - 6 3 - 7 2 - 9 Consumer Nondur (40) 51 51 51 29 3 - 9 3 - 5 4 - 5 Drug (ex-Biotech) (91) 56 62 60 75 19 - 3 16 - 2 12 - 4 Electronics (320) 26 38 45 54 28 - 23 19 - 42 28 - 43 Financial (116) 76 83 87 83 35 - 1 32 - 5 30 - 4 Foods (69) 58 51 45 42 4 - 15 7 - 8 7 - 6 Healthcare (97) 47 55 62 59 15 - 10 16 - 10 14 - 13 Household Prods (37) 30 35 46 46 3 - 9 1 - 6 3 - 8 Insurance (95) 69 75 75 76 21 - 8 18 - 5 23 - 4 Internet (393) 26 42 33 10 27 - 31 14 - 48 10 - 51 Leisure (121) 46 53 53 49 19 - 13 15 - 18 13 - 11 Machinery (48) 56 65 67 52 9 - 1 4 - 2 5 - 4 Media (94) 40 42 45 43 7 - 5 7 - 8 7 - 10 Medical Tech (118) 36 52 58 59 13 - 9 9 - 12 9 - 8 Metals (ex-Gold) (75) 41 49 50 37 8 - 12 9 - 12 6 - 12 Oil & Gas (168) 56 72 85 92 30 - 6 24 - 9 37 - 5 Paper Prods & Pkg (48) 22 37 33 29 0 - 15 1 - 12 3 - 7 Real Estate (115) 84 78 64 84 11 - 2 17 - 4 19 - 3 Retail (243) 52 54 53 53 24 - 20 31 - 18 27 - 14 Semiconductors (147) 12 23 33 48 7 - 14 5 - 25 5 - 30 Software (191) 34 53 54 31 20 - 12 14 - 14 13 - 19 Telecom (275) 21 32 28 27 12 - 30 6 - 41 6 - 48 Transportation (82) 40 32 46 48 4 - 10 4 - 8 1 - 14 Utilities (119) 81 82 78 76 18 - 5 28 - 7 38 - 6 AIQ market log (buy - sell ratios of signals) September 14 DJIA 11,087 Nasdaq 3,913 Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US) Universe of stocks 43 - 57 54 - 46 S&P 100 33 - 67 57 - 43 Nasdaq 100 22 - 78 87 - 13 September 8 DJIA 11,220 Nasdaq 3,978 Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US) Universe of stocks 30 - 70 38 - 62 S&P 100 41 - 59 44 - 56 Nasdaq 100 3 - 97 50 - 50 September 1 DJIA 11,238 Nasdaq 4,234 Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US) Universe of stocks 56 - 44 29 - 71 S&P 100 33 - 67 67 - 33 Nasdaq 100 44 - 56 0 - 100

To: Les H who wrote (58976)	9/15/2000 9:47:50 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Market. Mixed. That's the state of our indicators. Rarely do we see so many different opinions among our small set of indicators. The equity-only put-call ratio gave a buy signal a couple of weeks ago and it remains bullish. The weighted equity-only ratio is also on a buy signal, although by some interpretations one could say it's just moving sideways. Finally, the breakdown of the equity-only numbers into its NYSE and NASD counterparts shows a pretty clear buy signal for the NASD component, while the NYSE component is technically on a buy, too but one might again say that it's just drifting sideways. Still, this group seems pretty bullish in its outlook. The other broad market put-call ratios, however, don't agree. All of the following are on sell signals: This includes the $OEX weighted, S&P 500 futures weighted and normal, and NASDAQ- 100 ($NDX) weighted and normal. QQQ weighted is also on a sell signal, but we don't put much credence in the QQQ put-call ratio because of the heavy institutional hedging activity in those options. Meanwhile, our oscillator's last signal was a sell signal back on August 18th. That remains in effect, since it was never stopped out. The oscillator itself stands in modestly overbought territory at +87. It would have to decline seriously in order to set up a buy signal. Finally, the Volatility Index ($VIX) has apparently established a low, which not only triggered our straddle buy, but also indicates that more volatile times lie ahead. In summary, signals are about as mixed as we've seen in some time, but prices are struggling, so maintain bearish positions while using tight risk control. optionstrategist.com