Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Juniper Networks - JNPR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Viapiano who wrote (1605)	9/15/2000 4:59:21 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3350

Actually JNPR is, I believe, the only competitor that has actually taken market share from CSCO in any market. However you have to remember two things. First, CSCO had 100% market in the high end router until JNPR's entrance so any penetration is lost share for CSCO. Of course this is not neccessarily a bad thing for CSCO and in fact it may be exactly what CSCO wanted. Why? Well, second, JNPR provides a strong #2 which may help demonstrate to the heavy handed DOJ that CSCO is not a monopoly... furthermore CSCO would much rathar have JNPR in thier with their narrow focus than a more broadly positioned competitor like a NT or LU. The real question now is how much further will JNPR penetrate and grow their business and what is the number? Right now the estimated CY2000 market is about $2.5B. JNPR has what... 15% market share - $375M of it.... and a market cap of nearly $70B.... Um,..... OK. That math looks OK. Yeah... sure.. Another way to look at this. Outside of high end routers Cisco is in low and mid range routers, DSLAM/modems, Cable head-ends and edge, Optics, Dial/Wireless and other Access, Content switching, ethernet switching, ATM/Frame Relay WAN, IP voice, and more that I can't even remember. JNPR... has 3 routers targeted at a <$3B market. JNPR has a backward PE of 2340! JNPR's revenues are 1/75 that of CSCO's JNPR's earnings are 1/100 that of CSCO's yet JNPR's cap is only 1/7th that of CSCO's Do the math.... this makes no sense. Yes, JNPR is growing faster as a percentage. JNPR nearly doubled revenue sequentially in 6/00 adding a whopping $113M to the top line. CSCO is growing slower as a percentage but top line sequential growth is was $436M - four times that of JNPR and probably more than JNPR's annual revenues. SO, yes.. JNPR is a great company and I don't mean to suggest otherwise but what I am attempting to share is that the multiples don't play out. The market - at even a bloated estimate of $3B doesn't justify a near $70B cap. If JPNR OWNED the core router market and the market was growing at 40% from here to forever (which it won't according to Gilder) it would take JNPR 7 years to just generate $70B in revenues. Of course JNPR only owns 15% of the market... assuming that this grows to 1/2 the market it'll take them 10 years or more to get to a one time revenue model - that's assuming 40% market growth. It's just way out of whack. OG

To: Paul Viapiano who wrote (1605)	9/15/2000 5:01:21 PM
From: Sector Investor	Respond to of 3350

<<JNPR is taking market share away from CSCO in a larger way than any competitor has before.>> I'm not sure that is exactly true. ASND-CSCC beat them in Wan switching in 1998. Between $1-$2 billion in contracts that year as I recall. But you are talking routers, which is a horse of two different colors (kinda deep pinkish, and also yellow <g>). See this revenue breakdown chart in this article: lightreading.com

To: Paul Viapiano who wrote (1605)	9/19/2000 1:34:45 AM
From: Sam Bose	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3350

New Juniper products aim to tame business network traffic By Ben Heskett Staff Writer, CNET News.com September 18, 2000, 9:00 p.m. PT Juniper Networks will expand on its network equipment focus tomorrow, debuting two network devices that include high-end features but stray from the company's traditional Internet market. The Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company has experienced runaway success focusing on providing routing technology for the "core" networks of Internet service providers such as the UUNet arm of WorldCom. It has split its stock twice this year, posted a 77 percent sequential increase in sales for its most recent quarter, and has garnered nearly 23 percent of the high-end network router market once thought to be sewn up by rival Cisco Systems, according to analysts. Now Juniper is targeting the network "edge" with new routing technology at the point where private business connections for corporations intersect with the public Net. The edge router market has also been cornered by Cisco, but analysts view the market as ripe for a new competitor, given the success of recent entrants such as start-ups Riverstone Networks and Unisphere Networks. "It's still dominated by Cisco, but judging by Juniper's success in the (Internet) core, there's no reason to think it won't work here," said Kevin Mitchell, an analyst with industry consultants Infonetics Research. Juniper is shipping two new devices, called the M5 and M10, which Juniper executives say are smaller, have more technology density, and are faster than the competition. Among the customers planning to use the new routing technology are Broadband Office, Verio and UUNet, according to the company. Price tags for the new equipment start at $25,000. Juniper executives said their strategy is to extend the expertise they have in Net core routing to other markets where their ISP customers have needs. Mitchell said Juniper is moving "up and down the food chain of router size." For example, the company has morphed the same software code used in the company's high-end routers for use in the new devices. "Juniper's staying focused on the same customers and providing a larger part of their network for them," said Carl Showalter, vice president of marketing for Juniper. Broadband Office, a network operator focused on business complexes and apartment buildings, uses a wide array of Juniper gear for the network it is constructing. "They've been able to promise significant (technology) improvements to customers and they've been able to deliver," said Johnson Agogbua, co-founder and vice president of engineering for Broadband Office.