Neo, interesting analysis. Looks to me like the two key states to watch are Florida and Washington. I'll be willing to bet Bush wins Washington. If he picks up Florida, the race is won.
Electoral College Analysis
by: Scott Rasmussen
portraitofamerica.com
Back in the summer, Portrait of America polls and others showed George W. Bush with a large lead over Al Gore in the Electoral College. However, as we pointed out at the time, a swing of just 5 points in the popular vote would create a much closer battle in the Electoral College.
With the conventions behind us, we’ve had a five- point swing in the popular vote, and the Electoral College vote is, as we predicted, much closer. There are a total of 538 Electoral Votes; 270 are required to win the Presidency; and, neither candidate has a clear path to that magic number.
Bush starts with a base of 16 states that voted Republican in each of the last 4 elections. These states have 135 Electoral Votes. Of these states, only North Carolina is considered a possibility for poaching by the Gore team, but the home state of Rasmussen Research must still be considered a likely state for the GOP.
Five states have voted for the GOP three times in the last four elections (Bill Clinton managed to win each of these states just once). Bush would like to count on these five states (Florida, Georgia, Montana, Colorado, and Arizona) and their 57 Electoral Votes. However, Florida appears to be very much in play based on the most recent Portrait of America poll which shows a dead heat (43% Gore, 43% Bush). We’ve also polled in Georgia since the convention season and found Bush does have a comfortable lead there (47% to 39%).
So, George W. Bush has a base of 192 Electoral Votes to build upon and only Florida’s 25 votes are seriously contested.
Al Gore starts with a smaller base of nine states plus the District of Columbia, which have voted for the Democrats the last 3 elections. These states account for 94 Electoral Votes. However, two of the Democratic base states (Oregon and Washington) are proving troublesome for the Vice-President. In fact, a Portrait of America telephone survey conducted in Washington after the Democratic convention found Bush still leading Gore 46% to 37%. We’ll be polling again in Oregon soon.
Moving beyond the solid Democratic base, most pundits assume California will end up in the Democratic column this fall. The latest Portrait of America telephone survey in California finds the Vice-President ahead by 7 points. The vital importance of California to Gore can best be understood by recognizing that if you added California’s votes to the Bush base, Bush would have 246 Electoral Votes to the Vice President’s 94. In that scenario, Bush would need to win just 24 of the remaining 198 Electoral Votes to become President.
On the other hand, adding California to Gore’s base brings the Vice President to 148 Electoral Votes. Not quite up with Bush’s 192, but pretty close. It’s also pretty safe to assume Gore will add Connecticut to his column. A Portrait of America survey conducted in that state at the height of Bush’s bounce found Gore would take Connecticut with Lieberman on the ticket. Connecticut’s eight Electoral Votes bring the Democrats to 156.
So, there are 18 remaining states with 190 Electoral Votes that will probably determine the election. Each of these 18 states has voted with the winner in the last four Presidential Elections. Of these 18, we’ve polled in five since the end of the convention season. Pennsylvania, with 23 votes, is leaning towards Gore (43% to 38%). Michigan, with 18 votes, is leaning towards Bush (42% to 38%). Missouri is a dead heat (41% to 41%). Wisconsin, with 11 votes and Delaware with 3 votes are just too close to call at this point.
If you add these leaners, it’s Bush 210, Gore 179. Remember, 270 is the magic number.
The remaining key states, in each of which Rasmussen Research will conduct surveys over the next couple of weeks, are: Illinois (22 votes), Ohio (21), New Jersey (15), Tennessee (11), Maryland (10), Louisiana (9), Kentucky (8), Arkansas (6), New Mexico (5), West Virginia (5), Maine (4), New Hampshire (4), and Nevada (4).
What this tells us is that voters in a handful of states will determine the election. As we poll in these states over the next couple of months, the number of toss-up states will decline and we will be free to focus on a few key states for election night. Realistically, it is probable one candidate or the other will have clearly wrapped up the needed Electoral Majority before Election Day arrives.
Keep in mind these numbers allow us a few basic assumptions. On the GOP side, the big assumption is that Bush can carry Florida. Given George W. Bush’s brother Jeb governs the Sunshine State, and polls have consistently found the race to be somewhat close, this is not unreasonable, but is far from certain.
For the Democrats, the biggest assumption is California. Bush is closer there than many people thought he would be, but the state is still leaning to Gore. It’s also likely many undecided voters are torn between Gore and Nader, so the Vice President may have a little more cushion than the numbers indicate.
While California may be fairly safe for the Democrats, Washington and Oregon may be more problematic. Al Gore has trailed in Washington and Oregon all year according to Portrait of America surveys and other data. For Washington, this includes polling conducted since the conventions have been completed and the Gore bounce has taken hold.
To keep up with the latest in the Electoral College, keep coming back to Rasmussen Research data on the Portrait of America site. We’ll be adding new state polls on a daily basis and drawing special attention to the toss-up states and any surprises along the way. |
