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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sr K who wrote (160759)	9/15/2000 11:02:55 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

Re: don't fight the tape -- too speculative for me. Ahh, but speculation is the essence of investing... isn't it? One couldn't ask for a better risk/reward scenario. Valuations like these only come around so often and you need to place your bets on the long side precisely at times like this when nobody wants the stock -- for no real reason other than rampant fear of a slight short term slowdown from a divided analyst community. You can't catch the bottom anymore than you can predict the top but you need to act at some point. Valuation metrics and historical price patterns offer good clues as to how close the stock may be to either end of the spectrum. Survey says the stock is now way cheap relative to itself, it's prospects, it's peers, and the overall market -- even when Dell disappoints on the 30% number. Not a bad gamble to place a sizeable bet at this time IMO regardless of the tape. One has to be able to stomach a drawdown at any entry point on any stock. So Venkie gets in at 35 and it bottoms at 31. Then it shoots to 40 and you get in following the tape but the tape turns and it settles back to 35. Who comes out ahead from that point on? This will likely happen over a few weeks so your money couldn't earn much on the sidelines anyway. But you are right. If we take out 35, 31-32 is the next stop. If it does get down there, it wont stay long. 20's wont happen unless 2HFY01 is a total train wreck or the NAZ just decides to plunge below 3000. Regarding the tape, I'd say were mighty close to the end of the reel. MEATHEAD