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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (1768)	9/16/2000 12:57:07 PM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 65232

Hi Jill, First remember only one of several scenarios. Who is talking about a hard landing recently? On CNBC more than a few times this past week - both wrt to bonds as well as stocks. One of the best uses of CNBC is as a probe into crowd psychology. Isn't it traditional to use earnings warnings right now Surely is. Which is why I wasn't surprised that a phase two might occur now. its true we could have a dip--and then as of mid late Oct, start to rally into next year? Well that's what the presented scenario predicts, but it's only one scenario. Perhaps one could interpret the Aug rally as proof positive that most Americans are still optimistic Which some contrarians would say is just why we "need" more plunges. ...our bear market was created in part by a way overbought NAZ and the best year ever, so massive tax bills and thus selling...too many people were on margin Actually several good years, a parabolic NAZ and high margin usage in the face of an adverse interest rate environment. Classic condition for the start of a bear correction. but as scary as it was, the basic economy is still healthy and people are still optimistic As stated above, all the more reason (from a contrarian perspective) to suspect that the bear correction has not run its course. But hey, it is probably wise to be cautious. The market rewards prudence, but not cowardliness. Distinguishing between them is the test. lurqer