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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (24351)	9/16/2000 5:43:18 PM
From: Ron McKinnon	Respond to of 53068

from briefing.com Weekly Wrap : We're two full weeks into the month of September and there still hasn't been any post-Labor Day rally. What there has been, though, is a lot of post-Labor Day disappointment. The market struggled again this week, burdened by many of the same concerns afflicting it last week and a few new ones to boot. As for the old concerns, we are speaking of the weak euro, earnings warnings, and rising oil prices. As for the new concerns, we are speaking of weak foreign currencies, earnings warnings, and rising oil prices. You see, there was no real relief on any of these fronts this week, and because of that, it exerted further selling pressure on the major indices as more investors opted to take some money off the table. In doing so, the market's troubles were compounded as this sentiment led to a technical breakdown in many of the tech sector's big-cap components, including Intel (INTC 57 33/64), Cisco (CSCO 62 3/4), Hewlett-Packard (HWP 103) and JDS Uniphase (JDSU 103 5/8). Also troubling was the market's inability to maintain a rally in the midst of good news on the inflation front as the PPI and CPI for the month of August fell 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. In fact, the decline in total CPI was the first seen since April 1986. Ex-food and energy, PPI and CPI were up a modest 0.1% and 0.2%. Arguably, the highlight of the week was Chase Manhattan (CMB 49 1/8) acquiring J.P. Morgan (JPM 174 1/2) in a stock deal originally valued around $36 bln. The annnouncement on Wednesday ended a prolonged period of speculation that JPM was a takeover target. The fact that the financial sector basically drifted lower in the wake of the news, though, may have been a signal that buying activity in the financial sector-- based on takeover speculation-- is about to cool. Accordingly, the financial sector will be a key group to watch next week as profit taking in these stocks will be a restrictive influence on the broader market. Next week, Goldman Sachs (GS 124 7/8), Lehman Bros. (LEH 143), Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD 98 1/2), and A.G. Edwards (AGE 54 211/256) will release their quarterly results. Given the strong run in these stocks ahead of their earnings, and festering concerns about the performance of the stock and bond markets, we expect their will be a tendency among investors to use the actual news as an excuse to take profits. We expect to hear more earnings warnings, too, if for no other reason than it's that time of year, but it's likely more companies will step forward during this tumultuous confession period to blame either the weak euro, higher raw materials costs or component shortages for impending shortfalls. McDonald's (MCD 28), PRI Automation (PRIA 26 3/8), Maytag (MYG 33 5/8), Anadigics (ANAD 24 43/64), and SCI Systems (SCI 43) were among the notable companies to warn this week. The latter's warning was perhaps the most bothersome as it raised concerns about a broader slowdown in the technology sector. Having said that, the Nasdaq's recovery from this month's losses will be an arduous one if the market is asked to digest further warnings that raise concerns about a weakening in demand. Needless to say, this month has belonged to the bears which have trimmed the August excesses in rapid fashion. Given the scope of recent declines, though, we would anticipate some early-week bargain hunting. However, unless there is some noteworthy relief from the concerns mentioned above (eg. a positive earnings pre-announcement from a bellwether company or a downturn in energy prices), the path of least resistance will remain to the downside with traders apt to use signs of strength as a selling opportunity. In short, this nervous market needs a bullish catalyst which it can sink its teeth into.

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (24351)	9/16/2000 6:36:52 PM
From: chartseer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

Hi Ron: To me the trend downward is clear. That is not to say there will not be up days, or up issues, but the downtrend to me is very clear at present. Unfortunately the big popular indicators have not yet turned. At DWA as far as I know their BPs are still positive but I am not buying. I must admit that many stocks are at or near support levels so maybe we are nearing the bottom but so far I don t have any confirmation of such. I have been a seller on balance the past several weeks. I march to the beat of a different drummer. Right now I am marching downward. Of course I could be wrong but I'd rather be wrong when out of the market than wrong when in the market if you get my drift. Believe me I am currently charting the market deterioration daily since Sept 01. then again what the heck do I know? chartseer