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Strategies & Market Trends : Arbitrage Plays -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (251)	10/6/2000 4:11:25 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 376

Paul, I agree with you on the high risk of fj by gp. What do you think of tgp by pcl. TGP seems like a reasonable holding in the low 20's should the deal bust. But I believe that the IRS tax decision is much more likely to be favorable than the anti trust decision as in fj/gp. Also for any uncommited funds you might wish to add to cg and take the stock election. My guess is that we may get closer to 50% stock rather than the 30% minimum. I think the SAILS are worth about 2 based on present value analysis. This gives an average of 72 and 74 or 73 net. If you put in limit order at 71.5 I speculate that you will be able to pick up some more shares. Here is the hidden part. Assuming that we are in the 30 day counting period we have some low prices of ni to average in to the conversion ratio. If the 30 day average is 25 and ni ends up at 26 there would be a 4% premium on the stock portion of the deal. I could see us getting 3.5 to 4 per cent for a one month hold. Hope you have cash from bocb in your account by now. Regards and good luck.