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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (1857)	9/17/2000 11:40:49 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Jill, my plans differ slightly, I have "get out no later than mid November" (maybe a little earlier), back in for the year end rally (second to third week in December), and out again, probably at the end of the first or second week in January. After that it is cloudy, maybe a bounce reentry early in March to late March, but not in for what I think will be a second massacre of 2001 in May (the first being during February, which may lead to an extreme bottom late in Feb or early March). I also think that the group of stocks that will participate in "bear market rallies" will become narrower as we progress during the year 2000. Right now, I have a "broad range" of a bottom in late June to mid August (too far out for better forecasts and too many things can happen between here and there). My current, once more very rough, "turnips forecasts" and I will try and refine these with time, are 2950 on the Naz in the February early March bottom, and hold your seat, 1900 or so as the ultimate bottom. I am not sure that ultimate bottom will be reached next year, I have one possible scenario particularly if oil blows up), of a bottom in October of 2001, or even as late as March 2002. Too far out to be more accurate and starting to depend on other world markets, currency behavior and the type of administration we end up with. As for the Dow, I have the Feb/March low at about 9500 or so, and the second down leg to 7500. In the next few years, however, I think that the Dow might make another low around 6000 (but for the Naz, I still have 1900 as the worst case for the next few years). Of course, as always, the turnips reserve the right to be wrong, change their mind and change their mind often (g). Good luck, the next twelve months are going to be interesting, almost as much as the last six months. Zeev irrevolute.iuma.com