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To: Boplicity who wrote (31779)	9/17/2000 8:13:17 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

if there was money to be made, companies have found a solution for most concept that at one time were thought to be impossible to solve. Certainly, but that doesn't mean that one shouldn't be aware of when a significant gap between "want to" and "can do" exists in current technology, nor does it mean that all barriers that have ever arisen have all been crossed. Technology in any given focus tends to proceed by punctuated evolution so that while there are periods of incredible change there are also intervening flat spots. The two things I think are important for us in looking at broadband and optical at this stage are 1) the tornado has only begun and it is clear that there are subsequent tornados in the offing, and 2) it is not necessary for optical to replicate every function of electronic networks to be wildly successful, nor is is necessary to reach to every household. I find it very interesting that not only is there a glimmer of hope for optical packet routing, but that there are scenarios in which it is not really necessary for it to exist for optical to continue wild expansion. Similarly, there seem to be developments in wireless which could replace the last mile for either wire or fiber ... wouldn't that speed adoption enormously not to actually have to lay all that fiber?

To: Boplicity who wrote (31779)	9/17/2000 8:34:42 PM
From: Selectric II	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

-OT- Re: "The Next Big Thing" We have fiberoptics for broadband. We have satellites for mass distribution over broad areas. And we're working on fiberless optical broadband (Terabeam). How about optical satellites? Fiberless/wireless broadband over vast areas at the speed of light. After that, "Beam me up, Scotty." If so, somehow I think QCOM, NTAP, JDSU, and a few others often mentioned on this board will be players.

To: Boplicity who wrote (31779)	9/18/2000 3:35:51 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Gregory, many of us, certainly including me, need warnings like yours of a general tech slow down, to encourage us to keep a generous cash reserve. So thank you. But in detail, you speak of a slow down in software as an event which has already occurred. ??? Customer relation software, i.e. SEBL's stuff is certainly booming. Backup software, e.g. VRTS's products are booming. A software cum consulting company that I have held for about five years, CMG, is still growing at around 35% a year, spreading over Europe. Companies with India based programming staff, such as CTSH,INFY and ITWO are growing rapidly. Not only that, in the technology, object oriented programming is now quite standard so the quality and speed of development is generally much higher than a few years ago. In addition the neat fast new hardware lets us programmers do our developments jobs faster. To me it looks like we have arrived at the golden age of programming. I simply don't see the slow down in software; it may very well exist in the other areas you mention. Doubtless, your general caution is needed.