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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Burdell who wrote (35237)	9/18/2000 10:57:03 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

George, Holding Sears for 30 years was great. But I disagree that buying CSCO at 300+ times earnings at the beginning of 2000 should be considered a "Blue Chip" investment. At the current rapid rate of growth, it will take 300 years to grow into that valuation. Now that it has been chopped down, the PE is 172. . . thats 172 years worth of earnings to equal current valuation. Companies like JNPR are making certain that the CSCO is not the ONLY player in the router biz. And with all-optical routers just around the corner. . .with products from companies like Lucent and Agilent. . . it is hard to imagine that CSCO will stay competitive enough to maintain its current growth rate. . . especially considering the monopolistic market it has enjoyed for years. I see CSCO as a high-flier. I don't know that it has ever been a value play. And as for dividends, I would be shocked if they issued them to common shareholders. But once more this is NOT an argument about whether long-term holds are a valid investment. I never said anything like that. . . and do not appreciate the false reference you are making by persisting in this argument. The discussion is about the "SAFETY from VOLATILITY and the perceived reduced risk by investing heavily in Blue Chip type investments". Please go back and actually READ what I said. You will see that it deals with the CHANGING MARKETS beginning January 2000 affecting stocks considered to be Blue Chips by the dramatically increased volatility. If you refuse to believe that the MARKETS HAVE CHANGED, I am not going to try to convince you. Rande Is