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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: FiloF who wrote (11132)9/19/2000 3:01:29 AM
From: Gus  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17183
 
.....but the name of the game here (at least as
far as this forum is concerned) should be making
money on your investments.


And half the trick of making money is keeping it,
right?

Let's see. If you've been following the EMC
conference calls over the past 6 quarters, here's
a list of the investables that flow from the growth
rates of certain parts of EMC's business. The way
this dynamic works is that EMC is driving most of
the sales growth in storage networking and its chief rivals, the server companies, are reacting furiously
with a range of me-too products that continue to be
hobbled by volume and price-driven strategies that
miss -- partially or entirely depending on the vendor
-- the entire point of selling intelligent storage
nodes to companies reorienting themselves, at
base, as information banks in the 21st century.


7/1/2000 9/18/2000 Return CAP TTM Sales

EMC $ 77.1875 $ 95.6875 24% $208.63B $ 7.55B
QLGC 69.6250 125.3750 28% 6.65B 228.23M
EMLX 67.6438 94.1250 40% 3.38B 139.77M
JNIC 30.8125 66.6250 116% 1.62B 67.76M
FNSR 25.9375 38.8750 50% 6.22B 80.48M
CMNT 16.5000 19.6250 19% 474M 164.69M
BRCD 177.8750 210.3750 18% 23.23B 227.03M
MCDT 28.0000* 81.5000 191% 8.68B 164.67M
NTAP 82.8125 125.3750 51% 39.62B 707.18M

Seagate and Veritas would be natural additions to
that list, but they're involved in a complicated
caper awaiting resolution.

Not all disk arrays are created equal hence,
not all revenues related to disk arrays have the
same quality. Guess which disk array revenues are
already subject to intense commodification?
Hint: it's the revenues from the LAN-dependent
one-dimensional disk array that can only do parity
RAID.

Put another way, on a risk-adjusted basis, where do
you want to be invested in a storage market that is
expected to reach $44B this year alone? NAS is only
a $2B market this year and you have the spectacle of
NAS and server vendors competing with their disk
drive suppliers in the low-end and mid-range segments
of that market.