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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (8532)	9/18/2000 2:09:34 PM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Hi, Frank - Is it possible that we're dancing around a fundamental shift in the economics of the near-term future? Many signs point to an exhausted, and perhaps mistaken round of capitalizations: witness the spectrum auctions, the dotcoms, and the huge capitalizations of some high-tech companies. The point of this remark is the anticipated buildout of future integrated and converged networks is going to require huge amounts of capital. Some providers, lightly laden with debt, may be the long-term winners. Given the commoditization that you speak of, the decline in LD, and emerging trends in convergence, it's beginning to appear that the only way for providers to keep their revenue base will be to expand and amalgamate services on their footprint. Those who got the footprint, and the spectrum, cheaply are looking good - an example would be T (though T carries quite a debt load). But the footprint and the spectrum have to be brought to a state that will retain revenue-producing customers. Those who do not have the means, in capital or infrastructure, to capture market share will begin to experience serious declines in revenue. Innovate, expand, converge - or lose. It will be a hard, vicious circle. The time is close upon us when the old forces of capital, emergent technology and human needs will all go into the crucible. The leisurely pace of innovation, regulation, and standardization that we once knew is disappearing fast. Justone mentioned, upstream, that 4 or 5 years was the time required to develop and implement software in new switches: I think that will be too slow. Money is beginning to ask some hard questions, I think. What is the salvation? It would be if the vendors who are being cannibalized are doing it to themselves, and not being supplanted by others. That is what will happen, IMO. Those who have the framework, the footprint, and the vision, with small debt loads will be the winners. The Darwinian process will begin soon: I feel there will be tremendous consolidation, coupled with huge capital requirements - and the market will reward only those companies who have a visible, understandable migration strategy to the future. It is a dangerous, exciting time to be an investor. Regards, Jim

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (8532)	9/18/2000 4:55:42 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

"Mike, I don't view our perspectives as necessarily polarized at opposite ends of the spectrum." Frank- No. Not polarized at all. Just different ways of looking at the same thing. I really appreciate your comments and read them in detail. You are out there in the real telecom world. I'm just looking in with a different perspective. I'll pretty much take your opinion over mine any day. Thanks. -MikeM(From Florida)