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To: Oblomov who wrote (19370)	9/18/2000 5:59:50 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

Equity Put/call still only .50, buy the dip!!!

To: Oblomov who wrote (19370)	9/18/2000 6:08:33 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Isn't stagflation the same as the soft landing scenario being touted now? Growth of 3.5% versus CPI of 4.5% with real inflation at 6-7%.

To: Oblomov who wrote (19370)	9/18/2000 6:11:08 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

purely from a k-wave standpoint and based on the size of the credit bubble i'd say a deflationary outcome is more likely. otoh, it seems that not enough investment has flown into raw materials production in recent years due to the depressed prices of commodities...and there will certainly be an effort to inflate the economy out of the coming problems. as you know, the signs are mixed at best...one can currently dig up evidence supporting both scenarios. latest official comments on the Euro: September 18, 2000, 07:17 AM PARIS ( Reuters ) Ê - The euro is "dangerously undervalued" and its reversal when it comes may be abrupt, the vice president of the European Central Bank ( ECB ) warned on Sunday. The Euro Ê In an interview with Les Echos daily released ahead of publication on Monday, ECB vice president Christian Noyer said the level of the euro would likely come up in discussions at the G7 meeting of leading industrial nations next Saturday. "The European position is clear: the euro is dangerously undervalued. That should be confirmed at the G7, I'm convinced of it," Noyer said. "A reversal is going to take place. Given recent developments, it even risks being abrupt." He said the relationship between the major currencies was always discussed in the G7 framework especially when their parity was not considered satisfactory. The G7 is comprised of the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada. Its finance ministers and central bankers meet in Canada this coming weekend. The euro zone encompasses Germany, France, Italy and eight other Western European countries. Since its launch 20 months ago, the common European currency has lost 27 percent of its value against the dollar, falling recently to record lows, at slightly above 85 US cents.

To: Oblomov who wrote (19370)	9/18/2000 9:21:23 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

i wanted to add something re. t-bonds, because you may feel there's a contradiction in my t/a look at them and the expectation of deflation longer term. this is only because two different time frames are concerned...bonds short to intermediate term look negative, which may set up a long term buying opportunity...

To: Oblomov who wrote (19370)	9/18/2000 10:34:32 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

It has to be inflation. There's no other way to deal with the staggering corporate and public debt except to hyperinflate our way out of it. In other words, borrow money to buy cheap physical gold. -g- I'm sure you've noticed that the new mantra of the fed (and the prez, our trusty economic sage) is that this economy can withstand more inflation than ever before. This is preparation for the next rate cut and the subsequent inflationary push from the subsequent dollar devaluation (which would normally be a transient adjustment). The message broadcast around the globe will soon be that the water is fine - the economy can withstand inflationary pressures heretofore unhearof, including oil. The purpose of course is to preserve the dollar and prevent hyperinflation, Brazil style - which would appear if faith in US equities began to wane and dollar exodus began. Will it work? If oil returns to $20 it has a chance, but as things are, fiat is weakening against one of two real measures of wealth, and I think that another attempt at pushing the nasdung to new highs will be seen for what it is -a false creation of wealth. I used to think the deflationary path would be walked, but I now think the asset inflationary path will be tried again. In fact, I think inflation is at a critical point right now - one push higher and it will exceed real growth. That push comes from gasoline, diesel, and nat gas. This months NAPM will be a sight to behold.