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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kapkan4u who wrote (9024)	9/18/2000 10:33:15 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kap, RE:"And both of you have been wrong in this regard, IMHO. Lack of non-Via chipsets is a problem, but it does not prevent the CPUs from being sold." I don't think so. When someone relies on another to make their product whole, inherent inefficiencies arise. Lag is one, control over short cuts is another. Lag is usually compounded by revisions, 3rd party chipset makers are famous for that. Lack of integrated chipsets have hurt Duron sales. Also, Duron was ready a long time before it was released. again, no motherboards. The Athon core has been SMP capable all along, no SMP chipset has hurt sales there. Not much of a problem if you can sell all you can make but now with Dresden ramping it seems they need all the places to stick Athlons they can find. Ok, so I'm picky... Jim

To: kapkan4u who wrote (9024)	9/19/2000 6:50:25 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Kap, <Lack of non-Via chipsets is a problem, but it does not prevent the CPUs from being sold. > Are you saying this in absolute sense or in the context of AMD making "approaching 7Mu" in Q3. If it is the latter, then I would agree that AMD's chances of selling close to 7Mu chips this quarter is pretty darned good. But if you are saying the former then I would like to know if you do not consider all the Celerons shipping out of Compaq/HP (use to be K6 SKUs before back-to-school) in the consumer domain as AMD's lost sales? If not, why not? <If you want to understand the recent declines in both AMD and INTC you have to look at the capacity vs. demand equation. The Wall Street thinks that they are heading in opposite directions in Q3 and it scares the $h*t out of them.> I agree with you that this is probably the dominant factor. But, with good infrastructure support AMD would have blown past Q2 expectations on increased market share and the market probably wouldn't be worried about AMD as much as it is today. The resulting higher EPS would also have created a higher lower bound for the stock. Rmember that Nasdaq tanked during first half of the year but AMD was going up inspite of the bad mood the market was in. My take is that if the fundamentals are really strong then the stock can move even when the sentiment is bad. AMD fundamentals are not as good as what they were two quarters back where it looked like AMD was going to be shipping volumes in low-end-desktop/high-end-desktop/laptop/server marke segments (consumer and commercial)in the second half of the year. Now, what we have is a grossly undervalued stock but not necessarily a company that is executing at peak-performance. Chuck