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To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (30160)	9/19/2000 4:30:07 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

<<I will not defend government intervention, or suggest that 5232.5 was a resonable level for COMPX to attain, but the 70% decline you suggest would be truly extraordinary.>> Yes. But this has been an extraordinary market for some time, wouldn't you agree? The 1500 number is an unemotionally derived number as I determined it from fibonnaci target for a completed correction based on what I consider to be the first wave down back in March. It coincidentally would put the Naz back on the historical PE norm. I hope it doesn't happen, only that I can see how the possibility exists for an extreme bear market that could be different this time. good luck M.

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (30160)	9/19/2000 7:30:02 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 42787

Dan, >>>> My long term target on the NAZ is around 1500. <<<< Just out of principle, I dont make big calls since the probability of predicting such is so low. However, its interesting to note that the whole Japan market did decline about 70%, keeping in mind that the NAZ is not the whole market. I also recalled a study that the NAZ PE, or was it the NDX PE exceeded the PE of the Japan market(N225). On the fundamental side, is our economy in the same lousey condition as the Japan market before it declined in 1990's - No. I would not say that it is impossible/improbable for the NAZ to lose 70% but as you said a 70% decline in the NAZ would be extraordinary.