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To: chic_hearne who wrote (19532)	9/19/2000 12:01:22 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

i wouldn't say that...imo the shorts will get covered, the clowns will buy some more on margin, and when between 50-63% of the decline is recovered and they're all lathered up again, the next dump will commence. better believe it, this 'mid cycle hicc-up' will turn into a rout. demand is probably about to plunge worldwide...the Asian stock markets and currencies are already discounting a sharp economic slowdown (actually they seem to be discounting a depression), as energy input costs rip huge holes in corporate and consumer pockets...and we have enormous additional capacity coming on line in semiconductors that will appear on the market just as demand begins to collapse...as usual. you should look at the capex of the major Asian and US manufacturers this year...there's going to be a flood of merchandise hitting the market. and it's predicated on completely ludicrous projections on wireless and PC demand made up mostly by WS 'analysts'. anyone touting 1,8 billion cell phone users within four years time needs his head examined...to cite some statistics from the prubear site: "If current demographic continue, 31% the world’s forecasted 6.4 billion people will be younger than 15, and 21% of adults will be illiterate. These two facts reduce by half the world's cellular phone buying population. Also, about half of the world’s population lives on less than $60 a month. Plus there are at least 500 million homes without electricity and two-thirds of the world population has never used a phone. But lets give the benefit of the doubt to Wall Street for a minute. (I promise not any longer!) U.S. wireless companies have spent approximately $71 billion over 15 years to secure about 90 million subscribers. This works out to be around $800 per subscriber. If there were to be 1.8 billion subscribers (currently there are about 500 million) it would require roughly another $1 trillion, yes with a "T", of capital expenditures." in other words, they're chasing a pipe dream...what this rally is about is defending important chart supports, thus the touts and yell kings have been wheeled out to do their little song and dance...remember, it began with Niles / MU yesterday (MU must be the most consistently underperforming money losing tech co. on the planet...a stock selling scam extraordinaire). they know that if the supports should fall this little dip could turn quickly into a rout. which it eventually will, anyway. the fundamentals simply won't support the charade much longer...