Republican Stronghold Is Weak for Bush
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By David S. Broder
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 19, 2000; Page A08
COLUMBUS, Ohio, Sept. 18 –– Of all the major states, none is more Republican in its makeup than Ohio. Every constitutional office, both Senate seats and both houses of the legislature are firmly in the hands of the GOP. The state Democratic Party is short of cash, of candidates and of confidence.
All of which makes it amazing that Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush should have to worry whether he can win Ohio's 21 electoral votes. But no less an authority than the state's governor, Bob Taft, said: "It is an extremely tight race. It could go either way."
Taft's judgment is backed by private polls that early last week showed Bush's once-healthy lead disappearing, following a motorcade visit to Ohio by the Democratic ticket of Vice President Gore and Connecticut Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman. Bush's numbers recovered enough to give him a slight lead later in the week, but the outcome remains very much in doubt.
And that is ominous in its implications, for no Republican in this century has won the presidency without carrying Ohio. Every electoral college map in the Texas governor's headquarters shows Ohio to be part of the coalition of states that would yield him a victory.
To be sure, Democrats are not yet counting on Gore being able to repeat the two narrow victories President Clinton won here. Clinton carried Ohio by 2 points in 1992, winning only 40 percent of the vote, as Ross Perot drained away 21 percent. In 1996, with Perot down to 11 percent, Clinton won by 6 points, but still fell well short of a majority. His Ohio showing was weaker both years than in such other battleground states as Michigan, Illinois and Pennsylvania.
Given all that, state Democratic Chairman Dave Leland said, "It is amazing what has happened, because this state has been trending Republican big-time."
For most of the year, Ohio appeared to be securely in Bush's column. Taft endorsed Bush for the nomination as soon as Rep. John R. Kasich (R-Ohio) ended his long-shot bid, and both men helped steer Bush to an easy victory over Arizona Sen. John McCain in last March's primary.
Even Sen. Mike DeWine, who headed McCain's Ohio campaign, commented at the time that Bush was "a perfect fit" for the Buckeye State, which favors mainstream conservatives who take care of business and control taxes but don't push ideological causes.
What changed the picture here, both sides agree, was the extraordinary success Gore achieved with his choice of Lieberman and his performance at the Democratic National Convention.
As Taft put it in an interview, "Gore put the Clinton connection behind him, he consolidated his base, and he found in Lieberman someone with real appeal to independents." Veteran state Republican Chairman Robert T. Bennett, while expressing optimism that Bush will win the state, said, "It would be very dangerous now for Bush himself to try to make Gore's character an issue. Gore has insulated himself from those charges with Lieberman and the convention."
Democratic chairman Leland said Gore's high card in Ohio is the economy, which has left pockets of poverty in old steel cities like Youngstown but has brought a boom to cities such as Columbus, with its mix of service and high-tech industries, health care and education institutions.
Barney Fisher, a production worker who brought his family to the suburban Delaware County Fair on Saturday, said, "I don't lean either way politically, but I think Clinton has done okay. There's plenty of work around here."
Bush is scheduled to visit Cleveland later this week, and some Republicans argue that more personal attention to the state is imperative. "He needs to do more than fundraisers," said Rep. Ralph Regula (R-Ohio). "He needs to do a plant gate or two and a lot of one-on-ones. He needs to mingle with people who are not in his camp."
Rep. Rob Portman, the Cincinnati congressman who is helping Richard B. Cheney rehearse for his upcoming debate with Lieberman, said, "Bob Bennett has a good plan for getting our vote out, and if we can get the focus back on the issues, Bush will be fine." While Democrats here count on Gore's education and HMO reform proposals to attract swing voters, Portman contended that "Bush has programs in Texas that are working. He just has to talk about them."
And Kasich, who endorsed Bush immediately on leaving the race last year, insisted that "Ohio is solid for Bush," even if the race looks "a little tighter" since the Democratic convention. "There is no Democratic Party here; we've wiped them out. And you can't build the apparatus you need in the few weeks before the election."
Democrats, not unexpectedly, challenge that view, noting the presence of Democratic mayors in Cleveland and other cities in northeastern Ohio, where they must roll up a vote, and the victory last November of Michael Coleman, the first Democrat elected as mayor of Columbus in decades.
"This has always been a Republican state, going back to the days of [William] McKinley and Mark Hanna," Leland said, "but there are moments in time when a Democrat can do well. I think this is one of them."
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (D-Ohio), the onetime "bad boy" mayor of Cleveland, said he found "a surprising amount of talk favorable to Gore on health care and prescription drugs" at a recent celebration of the Slovak Drama Club in Parma, "so there is a potential there for him to gain support from people who could be described as Reagan Democrats. For the first time, I'm starting to see those people come back."
And that is what worries GOP chairman Bennett. "Bush has to reach out to those Reagan Democrats," he said. "He has to convince them he will address those health care and prescription drug concerns. The boomer kids are seeing how important those things are to their parents."
There's no disagreement about that--or about the importance of Ohio to Bush's chances of winning the White House. As Leland said, "I told my executive committee here Wednesday night that we have been given a gift--a chance to decide who the next president of the United States is. If we deny Ohio to George Bush, we will make Al Gore the next president."
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