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To: Real Man who wrote (19641)	9/19/2000 4:10:20 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

well, one thing is for sure, the trade in the Euro has become an extremely lopsided one-way street. at the inflection point over 90% of market participants will be caught at the wrong end of this trade, and i tend to agree with the ECB governor who remarked yesterday that the reversal will be abrupt. i am definitely not convinced that the staggering US current account deficit 'doesn't matter' which seems to be the current consensus view. admittedly i expected it to turn sooner...but my guess is that the recent panicky drop is a final wash-out. one only has to look back at the Yen...just as the bearish consensus was getting unanimous in predicting a further collapse, it embarked on the strongest rally in several years. as Duisentwit correctly remarked, Europe's holding the mortgage right now. capital flows can reverse overnight - current account deficits can't. and with everybody leveraged up to their eyeballs, rest assured that an overnight reversal is exactly how this will end. of course i will refrain from trying to call a Euro bottom right here and now...but as in gold, the psychology of the market is incredibly despondent. ask any 'expert' if he thinks the Euro could rise...you won't find any.