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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (73832)	9/19/2000 6:19:35 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Anybody got a free membership for this guy?<g> Crude back close to 37 John More API........PADD 1 rocked & rolled by: supplyside_econ 9/19/00 6:01 pm Msg: 16791 of 16792 API crude stocks excluding PADD5 -4.3 mil bbls PADD 1 Heat stocks down 1.4 mil bbls PADD1 RFG Gas stocks down .833 mil bbls Implied gas demand 8.55mbpd vs 9.18 last week Implied Heat demand 3.75mbpd vs 3.72 last week Padd 1 High Sulphur Distillate (Heating Oil) 23.719 vs 23.015 last week and 47.433 last year Crude stocks 286.580 vs 308,755 last year Heat stocks 116.259 vs 144.257 last year Gas stocks 193.139 vs 201.628 last year Crude imports 8.668 vs 9.358 last week Product imports 1.881 vs 2.236 last week On access Oct crude +45 at $36.94 Oct gas +67 at 97.0c Oct heat +.109 at $1.03 AGA guess for tomorrow: +65 - 75 bcf Analysis: As far as PADD 1(East Coast) is concerned, it took a beating in key statistics which support forward prices and refinery proximity. The distillate drop is amazing as it was marked by a weak High Sulphur(Home Heating Oil) build of .704 mil bbls, and how 'bout those truckers contributing to a massive 2.12 mil bbl drop in diesel and other mid-distillate components. The refinery run rate dropped 4.8%, and now is not the time for poor run rates. It could be a mix of sneaking in some maintenance calls as future shut-downs seem impossible along side some uninvited snags. Needless to say, we must keep an eye on the announced Oct. scheduling of refinery turnarounds(Industry jargon for repairs to some nuts and bolts). Personally, the high up officials will encourage the refineries to produce and reschedule down time, and the industry is not completely ignorant or mean if not only for the fact that great pricing will be present. The Gulf Coast did some serious work and upped refinery rates by over 4.0% vs last year. Listen some of this sour crude even leads to bad batches of residual oil which can be throughput for other products, so let get busy and get some light sweet crude. Surprisingly, imports of crude fell by over .500mbpd, which coupled with poor import of product produced this small effect: Crude on shelves decreased Product on shelves decrease as demand stayed strong and Europeans struggle to meet restrictions on U.S. products for heat and blends. This offsetting effect will subside and we should throughput crude and systematically produce product for the shelves. Needless to say with strong demand present.....they cannot make it fast enough as the old saying goes. Watch for imports of both to improve, assuage pricing, and ironically induce more demand. With world inventories down, the U.S. does not lay claim to a large disproportionate bevy of tanker imports, and this is why in my opinion we need much more relief from the Non-Opec side to feed foreign refineries. The majors are starting to boost cap-ex and the suprise will be way to the upside, so stay tuned. Supplyside

To: isopatch who wrote (73832)	9/19/2000 9:29:44 PM
From: da_cheif™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

isopatch....thanks for the comments....my name is spelled wolanchuk.com.....and thanks again....

To: isopatch who wrote (73832)	9/20/2000 9:02:53 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

"By the time it's clear fundamentals have changed the move is over." That was my point. I don't think the fundamentals have changed yet, esepcially not with natural gas, and I think that the energy stocks are still being viewed with caution because of the oilpatch disaster of the eighties followed by what happened two years ago. I think energy stocks are somewhat in the position of the general stock market of about 1950, when investors continued for another ten years and more fearing a return to the 1930s. But we will see.