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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Ma who wrote (9269)	9/19/2000 9:37:04 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Paul: You sound too Canadian (and I'm Canadian)...You look for reasons not to buy...If you are not comfortable, then my advice is don't buy...I'm not saying there are no risks, but what I am saying is that the relative risk is so much less, given AMD's leading edge product lineups in 2 of the fastest growing markets anywhere (i.e. flash and microprocessors)and AMD's high profit margins from the getgo on the existing superior (as opposed to some future-if-ever competitor) "spry Athy" based products, that if you were ever gonig to invest in the market, now is the time, and AMD is the vehicle...Yes there are what-ifs, but that is the nature of the market place...imho, the what-ifs are not a significant factor with AMD at $30, a revenue growth rate of 40% for the foreseeable future, a p/e multiple of 10 based upon (my) expected Y2000 earnings forecast of $3.50, and an expected (by me anyway) eps growth rate of 40% for the foreseeable future owing to its leading edge product lineup in both flash and microprocessor segments...As I've said before, show me a $3 billion company with a revenue growth rate of 25% (very conservatively)with a p/e multiple of 10 and I'll show you a company that is undervalued by a factor of 2.5...Just imagine a company with 70% revenue growth rate this year and 40% growth rate next year trading at a p/e multiple of 10 based upon current year expected eps of $3.50 and I'll show you a company about which I am very excited with respect to the very real possibility of imminent price revaluation...There just aren't any $3 billion companies that can light a candle to AMD...So my conclusion is most definately...yes, those analysts are waaaay off base to be downgrading AMD at this "breakout" point in its hiostory...Yes...imho, Wall Street is waaaaay wrong in its current valuation of $30 for AMD...Should be minimum $75, imho, if valuation models were consistently applied!!! (By the way, I haven't heard any analyst talk to the issue of increasing ASP's as AMD transitions from K6 to K7...is that because it's impossible to denigrate AMD given the prospect of significantly increasing ASP's as the percentage mix of "spry Athys" increases during this transition??? (N.B. No analyst has ventured near any in depth analysis of the prospects of increasing ASP's and their profitability impact on AMD...Ever wonder why???)