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To: fedhead who wrote (19702)9/19/2000 8:38:29 PM
From: robnhood  Respond to of 436258
 
Right on Anindo...



To: fedhead who wrote (19702)9/19/2000 8:55:42 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
the truly vexing thing is it isn't even truly a bear market yet! it is in some indices and subsectors, but clearly not in others. many indices are barely off their all time highs after all. the most glaring exception is of course the COMP/NDX combo, which looks like a bear market beyond any reasonable doubt. in spite of this, a full 80% of Rydex bull fund assets remains committed to tech and biotech! the biggest buying surge by the public btw. took place during Q1 of this year, at prices that we haven't visited since - while the income oriented equity funds (the ones that buy high yielders, read utilities and REITS) have actually had outflows all year long. this is proof positive that one should fade the masses, as the strategy obviously stank. utilities took a big hit today, but only after they put in their best annual performance since 1929 (up over 40%...in '29 it was 69% from low to high...funny enough, the high was also hit in September that year).
so considering the asset allocation in Rydex, i suppose we should keep fading the masses...they show no fear, or even caution. it's like they had a firm promise from a higher authority that this thing will never end...which in a way they have (without being aware of it), as the Fed's money printing excesses are reaching fresh levels of absurdity by the day. the biggest argument in favor of the bears is actually that in spite of record fund inflows over the course of the year, and in spite of M3 and MZM growing at a roughly 10% annualized pace, this market can't make any significant headway. that speaks of the fact that the bubble must be precariously balanced...money is being thrown at it by the truck load, and it still isn't back to bubbling...at least not yet.
in any case, for traders it means to stay nimble, and not get married to up- or downside expectations...

i might add that a BK BEFORE the election (considered impossible by even dedicated bears...Alan Newman has recently distanced himself from his downside targets for the indices for this year e.g. and moved his expectations 3-4 months to the right) would truly be poetic justice...and it would make for exceedingly interesting times, in the Chinese curse sense...