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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GUSTAVE JAEGER who wrote (9827)9/20/2000 10:31:12 PM
From: Dayuhan  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 9980
 
These are not professional terrorists. They are loosely organized and poorly disciplined bandit gangs. Many of them are raw recruits, drawn in since the first round of big ransom payments by the promise of easy money and the status of carrying a weapon around town instead of farming or fishing. Even most of the veterans have little experience in head-to-head combat against an organized military force - that's not their style. It doesn't seem at all unlikely that they might have been inattentive to the hostages, especially if the hostages had previously been docile and they were near a road crossing, where an encounter with troops would be likely. It also doesn't seem unlikely that none of them were willing to stick around in a high-risk area and conduct a thorough search. It's not easy to find anybody in the jungle, especially when you can't use lights for fear of detection.

My own guess is that when pressed, a lot of these bands will dump the hostages, bury the weapons, and assume the role of non-combatants. No locals are going to blow their cover. I expect that many of the leaders are already out of Jolo. In any event, the last thing the police, military, and local officials want to do is put these leaders on trial. They could tell far too many interesting stories. It must be remembered that until quite recently, a cozy truce existed between the Abu Sayyaf and local political and military figures; many of the latter are rumoured, probably accurately, to have protected the gangs in return for a cut of the profits.

A Libyan-French conspiracy would represent a hell of a lot of effort for a very limited payback - the Libyan moment in the sun didn't last long, and will be quickly forgotten - and is, in my view, pretty farfetched.