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Technology Stocks : Efficient Networks Inc - (Nasdaq- EFNT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (459)	9/20/2000 11:40:02 AM
From: jghutchison	Respond to of 675

Herschel, I like your style. Jack Hutchison

To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (459)	9/20/2000 11:41:38 AM
From: Mark[ox5]	Respond to of 675

Re: SBC back on track.. they are still not up to levels seen in April/May. Define "on track"; on track to me is pushing everything out the door back at the same rate (and in fact it should be higher than April/May) So they are still ramping up to be where they should be... 6K a week is where they should be and last report is they were doing 1.5K or so for 2 months are are now back to 4K. Which models are you referring to. I have not seen the Hambrecht model revenue get lowered from what they posted 3 months ago, its been steady at $127M revenue.. and that was assuming no slowdown in SBC when first posted a few months ago, I assume? Re: WSTL versus EFNT price, EFNT has held up better for the past 5 weeks, until this past 7 days... we can argue over any time period and relative strengths.. we can say WSTL has been punished consistently for 8 weeks while EFNT has been punished for 4 of those weeks, it has been dipping from $41 to $57 a lot of times until this latest dip. So at times it held up better, at times it held up worst. My feeling (and its just an opinion) is that due to international exposure, the feeling was EFNT would be able to make up for SBC shortfall ... to some degree... and thats why it held up RELATIVELY well (both stocks have STUNK over past 3 months) so when I say relatively I mean its only lost 40% of value versus 50% for a competitor (which is still terrible) And now I think with the guidance given analysts over past 7-10 days they are guiding even lower in either gross margins, or revenue, or somewhere. THe volume and drastic drop and continued weakness seems strange to account to "chance" or the NASDAQ, especially when the fall happened much quicker and harder than the NASDAQ weakness. I dont think EFNT is whispering pessimissim, I think they are "guiding".. pessimisim to me would mean, we are going to fall $30M short on the Q, and I dont think they are saying that. So those were my opinions, what do you account for the 40% drop in about 7 market days? Of course its just an opinion but I fleshed out what I belief is happening.. do you think its just random EFNT has fallen so severly in a few short days? If not, why then? and I dont accept market jitterness when other stocks have not fallen so hard in a week's time... I think it has to be company specific especially considering we had 2 days of 15%+ down (this Monday and last Tuesday) Mark

To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (459)	9/20/2000 11:50:21 AM
From: Mark[ox5]	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 675

Also to add one comment, WSTL has other business lines other than DSL They have basically warned on the DSL CPE lines, but they were modeled for only 20% sequential growth and while DSL CPE will come in under that they have other business lines to make up for the shortfall. Also, like I said their stock performance is not exactly to write home about, its a case of very bad performance (WSTL) versus atrocious stock performance (EFNT). So all Im saying is WSTL can make their quarter without DSL popping up big time because other business lines are making up the shortfall and/or their gross margins were so bad last Q, that any improvement will trickle down to the EPS number and they should still make the EPS number. EFNT is in more of a pickle because in the short run of course they are DSL DSL DSL dependendent and the slowdown will reverbretate throughout their business model because they are 100% DSL versus WSTL who is 50% DSL (at this point) Once again I am not arguing about WSTL or the stock price, I could care less - I am just wondering what "changed" since last Tuesday to account for a 40% drop this late in the Q... to not ask questions and just say "everything is ok" or "its a market event" I think is counterproductive. I seriously hope everything Ive proposed here is incredibly wrong and EFNT has a $150M quarter; that would be great, but Ive seen way too many instances of the stock price preceding the news, so Im trying to figure out what the news has been over the past 8 days to cause this price fall.. there is no Verizon excuse, there is no SBC excuse, COVD has announced good quarter so what is it to cause that volume and negative price action? Chance? I doubt it. Mark