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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (9368)	9/20/2000 1:22:32 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

RE: Rambus Pravin, I'm starting to think that Rambus may be our friend much longer than we think. DDR and SDRAM royalties are irrelevant to us, because they will affect Intel systems just as much. P4 will be DRDRAM until "late next year". I think this "late next year" could very well slip into "early 2002". There seems to be some issues with DDR as I thought AMD's stuff would be out by now. My guess is Intel's DDR will suffer the same lateness. I also think the estimate for next year is for a hurried design. They are clearly desperate to get something other than DRDRAM for the P4, so this may very well be an extremely aggressive timeframe. For at least a year, we will have P4 with DRDRAM only. This is great because I *FIRMLY* believe the Dramurai are refusing to ramp DRDRAM in any *meaningful* volumes. It requires spending on expensive equipment that won't be needed in a year. There's just no incentive for them to ramp DRDRAM. This puts Intel in a catch 22 situation. Big volumes of P4 are going to skyrocket DRDRAM prices. The alternative is low volumes of P4 and not a volume presense in the high end. Either one is great for AMD. chic

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (9368)	9/20/2000 1:39:20 PM
From: Daniel Schuh	Respond to of 275872

Pravin, the bus people are a riot. They make Paul Engel seem rational and polite by comparison. The whole Rambus saga is great entertainment, and it presents plentiful opportunities for gusty stock traders too. Lord help us if they show up in volume here, we'll have to drag Mani out of retirement. Cheers, Dan.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (9368)	9/20/2000 2:41:37 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Techweek recommends AMD whose PEG is << 1 techweek.com The answer is anybody's guess, but investors might want to keep an eye on chip stocks for some good buys, especially if the market's gloom deepens. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), for instance, is more than 40 percent off its highs for the year, but it's cheap if you believe the analysts' growth forecasts. It was trading at about 12 times forecast earnings for this year, according to First Call. That's just two-thirds the 18 percent annual growth rate projected for the next five years. Growth projections should be used with caution, especially in the chip business, where analysts tend to get carried away with optimism at the top of the cycles. But to an investor looking for growth at a reasonable price (known as GARP on Wall Street), a stock with a price-earnings ratio well below the expected growth rate warrants a further look. Besides, trolling for possible bargains like this is a good way to have fun and maybe spot a profit opportunity when the market is going into one of its seasonal funks.