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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (37320)	9/20/2000 2:10:16 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

What you say could happen, for good reasons. I've been running a personal crusade watching for warnings from any of the big techs. CNBC, Brinker, etc., have been floodlighting earnings warning season more than I've ever seen since earnings warning season became a term. So far, not a one. The Internet buildout is keeping high tech so busy it can't keep up. Earnings warnings from the other sector companies are, in the meanwhile, coming in daily. Anyone have a feel for whether there are more than "normal"? Anyway, tech looks great to me. Tony

To: michael97123 who wrote (37320)	9/20/2000 3:35:19 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Michael97123, RE " As a tech investor I think we are looking at a divergence here that will result in a tech rally Oct-february at the expense of the dow(both cos affected by oil and euro and recent favorites such as oil and utilities peaking). Tech largely immune to much of this and where better for money to ... " You are Right! ... but look at what you did, because you divulge our little secret in this Thread about the "Oct to Feb" phenomenon --- AMAT is now substantially Up, now 78 3/4 as of this writing! Actually, AMAT and other Hi Techs perform well from Oct of an even year (like 1992, '94, '96, '98 and 2000) to Feb and later months in an Odd year (like 1993, '95, '97, '99 and next year 2001). Even in Odd to Even years AMAT performs well; the exception during the last decade is from Oct 95 to Feb 1996. It so happened that from Oct to Feb we have Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year --- all events when people buy Hi Tech gadgets. As for the Dow 30, Oct to Feb is not so good because of end of year tax selling pressure. By the time Oct comes, the young and smart money managers whose Battle Cry is --- " Look, Ma, NO TECHS!" have run out of Techs to sell and have just those Old non Hi tech Companies to sell for tax purposes. (By the Way, Odd years are when the Administration do its best to Up the economy and in the process enable more people to work. The Federal Reserve in turn, by raising Interest Rates, try to Undo during the following Even years what the Administration did before because the Fed believes those added workers will cause Inflation to rise.)