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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chic_hearne who wrote (54282)	9/20/2000 2:18:29 PM
From: Daniel Schuh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

chic, since the p4 die area is close to 3x the cumine die area, launching the p4 in high volume would present a dilemma for Intel. Given the degradation in yields with increased area, producing 1 p4 would probably use the fab capacity of 5 cumines, or something. Samsung will probably be happy to produce sufficient RDRAM (without cutting prices, of course) to cover the volume that Intel will produce, with SDRAM prices softening as they are now. But I don't see anybody trying to match them, starting from way behind in the ramp, and Samsung is not likely to cut prices much without competition. Aside: An article from today on DRAM pricing semibiznews.com DRAMs--a key bellwether for the chip industry--have seen spot-market pricing fall nearly 25% since July, partly due to liquidation of inventories by PC makers and distributors after weaker-than-expected market volumes in the summer, said Bear Stearns' technology team of analysts. The slump in DRAM prices and recent adjustments in forecasts for lower volumes in cellular phones have increased concerns about the current growth cycle of semiconductors. . . . In DRAM markets, spot prices for 64-megabit memories have slumped to the $6.60-6.80 range after peaking above $9 in July, Boucher said. A weaker-than-expected back-to-school build cycle in PCs left some manufacturers and distributors with too much inventory this summer. Consequently, those companies are selling off DRAMs in the Asian spot market, driving down prices, said analysts. Of course, the ever rational bus people will tell you that MU stock going down has nothing to do with this action, and everything to do with MU's reluctance to pay money for nothing. Cheers, Dan.