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To: RetiredNow who wrote (12717)	9/20/2000 7:42:07 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

<OT> What if OPEC was pumping 90-95% of their capacity right now, and that it's not barrels in the ground, but a lack of infrastructure (ships, refinery's, etc) that can't keep up with demand. OPEC's LT flight plan is pre-determined, and depending on who you read or believe, it 20-50 years of longevity. After oil is depleted, what does OPEC and mostly the middle east countries have as assets then? Hmmmmmmmm. You saw an oil shock today when right about 1:00, rumblings about releasing oil from our SPR surfaced. Look at an intraday graph of the OSX, that should tell you. It's a fragile market. People don't want to buy oil at 36 bucks now, and have it be $30, 6 weeks from now as it crosses the Atlantic and finds it's way to the refinery's, even with hedges: Message 14421800 If Iraq stops exporting, sanctions or not, they'll take 2M barrels off the market, and we go to 45-50/barrel. Very fragile indeed. I just got my Nat Gas bill. My cost/therm is up from .40c to .58c, about a 50% increase. It's going to be a fun winter. Steve

To: RetiredNow who wrote (12717)	9/20/2000 8:03:12 PM
From: Brian K Crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Mindmeld - <<...don't underestimate the power of an oil shock to undermine economies across the world. One of my friends was telling me, he believes the shock we are experiencing now is worse than the one we experienced in the 80's. I don't know if I agree with him there, but the fact is that oil shock put us into recession.>> The way I remember it, if you are talking about 1981-82. is the oil shock raised the Fed's paranoia about inflation. So Paul Volcker, then Fed Chairman, pushed short rates up and away until the prime rate hit 18% and mortgage rates hit 15%. That shut down homebuilding and car sales and you name it... So, things are a little different this time. Inflation under much better control, Fed ahead of the game, not behind. Brian

To: RetiredNow who wrote (12717)	9/21/2000 10:59:53 AM
From: AMF	Respond to of 24042

Sep 21 9:18am ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs & Co. chief strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on Thursday that equity-market concerns about higher oil prices, a weak euro and corporate profits are ''overdone'' and will be ``short-lived.'' ``Investors have been recently unnerved by an assortment of developments and concerns,'' Cohen said in a note to clients. ''We conclude that the reaction to these has been somewhat overdone and that the intermediate- and long-term view remains quite bright.'' Cohen, one of Wall Street's most widely watched strategists, said the backdrop for the U.S. economy ``remains quite favorable'' and reiterated her year-end price target of 1575 for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and 1650 by mid 2001. The S&P 500 index on Wednesday was at 1451. She retained her recommended asset allocation mix of 65 percent equities, 27 percent fixed income, 3 percent commodities, and 5 percent cash. The mix has been unchanged since March this year.