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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (12721)	9/20/2000 10:13:52 PM
From: Stocker	Respond to of 24042

Permit me take the other side of the coin....this is a good discussion. things are a little different this time. Inflation under much better control, Fed ahead of the game, not behind. Here's my take.....things are different now but also from a negative standpoint. Stocks of many companies are priced for perfection. For perfection we need $20-25 oil, not $35. In the early 80's stocks weren't up in the stratosphere valuation wise. There were fewer/smaller paper gains to be eroded and thus one could argue less sell pressure from those who wanted to hang on to new wealth. Also, fuel cells are a very long-term answer to an oil shock which is staring down the bull market now. The same type of argument goes on with those who are into long-term investing. One could dismiss short-term problems as being irrelevant for a company such as JDSU with great longer term growth prospects, but, that doesn't mean that JDSU can't get cut in half along the way. In the same way, an oil shock can cause a whole lot of pain to the economy until fuel cells play out. Now I just wish I could game how long this oil problem will last and just how freaked out the market will get.