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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (1566)	9/20/2000 10:05:55 PM
From: HG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

<<<Oil costs $6 a barrel to find, and natural gas 40 cents per mcf>>> Could I ask you for a pointer to the source of these numbers ? I was never concerned about the rate hikes...the oil crisis is another matter, considering the history...in 1990, it was the Arab fear, resentment for Saddam, and the obligation felt by a few OPEC countries towards the West which played a significant part in containing the situation... I doubt if it ever will come to that...but if it were to, wouldn't the market dislocation, to use your words, be stretched over a significant period if we were to find, produce and distribute ? What of that ?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (1566)	9/20/2000 10:57:35 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

<Oil costs $6 a barrel to find, and natural gas 40 cents per mcf. Add about the same amounts to produce and distribute, and the rest is temporary market dislocation.> Not to be argumentative, but when has NG traded 80 cents??? And if oil traded $15 per barrel long term, all drillers would go out of business, so I think your numbers are more than a bit off for NG and somewhat off for oil. <Right now energy costs are like a tax hike...they just slow the overall economy some. > I agree, but the effect of this depends on many things, like where are we in the business cycle?? Are equities under or over valued? We've had a record expansion fueled in part by large debt run ups... if we're due for a recession ANYWAY... then the effect of what's happening now may be WAY underestimated by WS IMO... let's face it... so far WS yawns at this 'new tax'. DAK