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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Pat Hughes who wrote (54346)9/21/2000 12:08:16 AM
From: chic_hearne  Respond to of 93625
 
Re: How would you protect a long position in the event of a loss in one of the pending lawsuits?

Buy short-term puts? Roll them over?


Pat,

If you buy puts, you give up your long term capital gains unless you've owned the stock for over a year.

If you've owned the stock for less than a year, your purchase date for the purpose of long term capital gains is reset to the date the puts expire.

If there is a set date for the outcome, I plan to buy a large straddle position since I don't have a position at this point, but I expect the stock to explode one way or the other based on the outcome (assuming the option prices aren't ridiculous which may be the case).

chic



To: Pat Hughes who wrote (54346)9/21/2000 8:37:28 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93625
 
Pat, I believe the German suit (the first to be decided) relates only to DDR and SDRAM. The SDRAM part is moot, since it will relate mostly to past events (if we assume that SDRAM will not be significant) in three four years. Thus even a negative outcome on DDR should be viewed in the light of what you think the outcome of the DDR vs DRDRAM battle will be. Since I disagree with my learned colleague, Carl that DRDRAM is "dead, dead, dead", I think that long term, the outcome is of little significance. I view the current suits and the demand of Royalties by Rambus for SDRAM and DDR as a tactical move to try and nudge the market in the DRDRAM direction without that interim detour through DDR. If the memory market of two three years down the road is split between DDR, DRDRAM and who knows what else, DRAM will be less of a commodity, and neither will come down sufficiently in price to satisfy Intel's long term strategic goals.

As for tactics to protect against a major temporary decline in case the German suit is lost, just keep your eyes on the stock itself, a break of the $75 to $77 area (or under $77 on a closing basis) will indicate to me that some problems are brewing. Right now, I would say that the fact that the Bus has held above that level through the last two weeks of Naz weakness, and in face of Via trumpeting DDR chip sets and the Taippe conference, is a very strong indication that DDR may not go very far.

Longer term, however (next year), I think that unless we vault above $97 in the next two months, the Bu$$ will react to the general opinions prevailing on the semi cycle, and if we get a bear market next year, the bu$$ should probably be available for reentry under $50. If you have a long term position, you may want to exploit any exuberance in the next few months to establish this long term gain and wait patiently until the market brings down extreme valuation measures in general to reenter without tax penalties.

Zeev