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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (38710)	9/21/2000 2:01:10 AM
From: Mr. Whist	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 769667

You and Rush Limbaugh are fans of the Rasmussen Portrait of America poll. I suspect that's because it validates what you wish for. I clicked on to the Web site tonight and carefully read the Rasmussen Research Methodology statement. Some problems arose: (1) The statement indicated that those people under age 18 are excluded from the survey, yet, as I understand the methodology, it's an automated survey. In other words, it appears that a 13-year-old could answer the phone, punch in #1 to indicate that he or she is over age 18, then participate in the survey. (2) A survey in which people punch in #1 for Bush and #2 for Gore isn't as reliable as telling someone over the phone "Gore-Lieberman" or "Bush-Cheney." Those wishing to participate in the survey may punch the wrong number on the phone, especially an elderly person or anyone within a half-hour after they wake up. (3) The Rasmussen survey purchases all of its samples from a single vendor, Survey Sampling Inc. This begs the question: How reliable is Survey Sampling Inc.? (4) To follow up on Point 3, there is no explanation on how the national sample is determined: Do the area codes reflect population patterns accurately? Does Montana receive the same number of calls as Minnesota? (5) It appears that a child answering the phone cannot hand off the phone to his or her parent(s). This would tend to eliminate working single parents, for instance, whereas suburban stay-at-home moms would tend to be included in the sampling. (6) The Rasmussen poll focuses on probable voters as opposed to registered voters. But it appears that simply asking someone questions about his or her voting history isn't as effective as actually gathering names from courthouse voting records, and then following up on that information. While the Rasmussen poll may have been among the more accurate in '96, as they say in the mutual fund game, past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Frankly, from what I read in the reserch methodology statement, I would tend to stick with a longer-established national poll (excluding Newsweek, because it seems to be skewed in the opposite direction.) Perhaps I'm wrong. Maybe Portrait of America is correct and the rest are wrong. I don't think so, but we shall see.