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To: hdl who wrote (41815)	10/1/2000 9:03:30 PM
From: hdl	Respond to of 42523

Out of the 399 companies that have issued statements about their third-quarter profit outlooks, 64 percent said earnings would miss expectations, exceeding the typical 58 percent, Joe Cooper, an analyst with First Call/Thomson Financial, said. But it is too soon to say earnings will be unusually bad, Cooper said. ``We are getting more announcements than normal, but the magnitude of the shortfalls is not large to date.'' Recent warnings have helped launch Wall Street into a bumpy downward slide with the Nasdaq Composite index (.IXIC) ending the week down about 3.5 percent, and the Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) finished with a decline of 1.75 percent. Year-to-date, the Dow was off 7.4 percent, the Nasdaq was down a solid 9.75 percent, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index (.SPX) was 2.23 percent lower. Wall Street also expects a hefty infusion of economic data next week, with the spotlight falling on the monthly jobs report due on Friday. WALL STREET CASTS WARY EYE ON DATA Investors will be scanning the data for signs that the ultra-tight labor market is loosening. The scarcity of workers has been a thorn in the side of the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who has repeatedly expressed concern that the pressure to boost wages will foster inflation. According to a recent Reuters survey, analysts predicted the number of payrolls created in September totaled 232,000 following a drop of 105,000 in the prior month. They also saw the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1 percent and saw average hourly earnings rising 0.3 percent in September versus a similar gain in August. Investors were also likely to focus on the National Association of Purchasing Management's (NAPM) report on the manufacturing sector, which is scheduled for release on Monday. On average, economists saw the NAPM index rising to 50.2 in September from 49.5 in August. A number above 50 connotes expansion. Earnings reports will begin to trickle in, and Alcoa Inc. (AA.N), the world's largest aluminum company, reports third-quarter earnings next Thursday, making it the first of the Dow 30 components to issue its results. Supermarket operator Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (A&P) (GAP.N), retailer Walgreen Co. (WAG.N), soft drink producer PepsiCo Inc. (PEP.N) and computer chip maker Micron Technology Inc. (MU.N) are all scheduled to issue earnings this week. But the earnings season will not really heat up until the week of Oct. 16, when 190 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 are scheduled to issue earnings statements, according to First Call/Thomson Financial. Analysts expect companies in the S&P500 to report an average of 16.3 percent profit growth in the current quarter, compared with expected growth of 18.7 percent at the beginning of the quarter, First Call's Cooper said. ``Most of the bad reports are behind us and those that are reporting should have generally pretty good numbers,'' Peter Gottlieb, vice president and portfolio manager at First Albany Asset Management, said. ``The question is, will it be the case that we had in the spring where even with good numbers, the stocks still went down?'' Gottlieb wondered.

To: hdl who wrote (41815)	10/1/2000 9:12:42 PM
From: hdl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

There was a fair amount of damage done across a pretty wide spectrum in technology. My guess is that if the bubbleonians don't figure out some way to rescue the market in short order early next week, it could really take a pasting. I think there is a desire to believe that the earnings numbers are going to save the day. I anticipate that the earnings numbers won't be that great and the warnings going forward are liable to be worse than people expect. above is from fleck