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To: Ahda who wrote (58579)	9/21/2000 1:29:04 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

<At present from where i sit i am seeing a soft landing. The problem is where i sit is an above average income area and i could be blind. There is nothing around me saying that we are going down the housing market is still tight and rates have dropped which could of helped.> My reasoning for believing the opposite is simply what I believe to be a high degree of leverage in the economy at this point in time... so a slowing economy will [I believe] snowball as the investment led boom comes to an end. I don't perceive the last 5 years as simply an economy perking along, I perceive it as a massive investment boom into all these new [?] technologies as well as somewhat of a build up in the old economy to service consumer demand from the beneficiaries of that boom. Why a slowdown now?? Well other than just because we're 'due', I believe there is ample anecdotal evidence to support such... the average age of an automobile is a fraction of what it was 6 or 7 years ago for instance, and I suspect that if such statistics were kept you'd see the same type of thing in home purchases and remodels... Perhaps the run up in consumer debt bolsters my case here. Who knows how long it can go on... but certainly based on the consumer borrowing you have to expect a slowdown at some point IMO. dAK