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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (33364)	9/21/2000 1:31:45 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

<<Iraq has been threatening Kuwait in the past few days, but it has been kept quiet by the news media. This is a serious situation for the oil thirsty industrialized world. >> Iraqi situation is desperate, thye are no where near to attack Kuwait like 1990 or disrupt the oil supplies from Hormuz or Red Sea, now they cannot even fly 100 KM south of Baghdad nor they can north of Kirkuk, it is comments like this where I feel a little more research would help the market is paranoid and rightly so, instead of worrying about the level just buy some long puts inter day hit of 1335 break.. With the exception of this I think this guy has far better understanding of TA than I would ever have all my life, these minor reads trouble me and make me apprehensive but in the end I trade from big picture that ihave in my mind the TA is only a help the other guys who are better do it other way around and trade from the TA and make interpretations on Global picture that may help the case, the problem with this is that it is the big picture that determins the direction of the market, like if Oil has to stay here for too long like 12 months we need to see market at 9000, the reason the market is here is that the smart money does not bleieve in that whole story of oil and that is the reason that even the TB's are holding well, like a heart attack patient we old timers look at htis sick market patient a little differently that we have been doing for last few years but this time if it is different than we are sitting at a major break which ever side it will we may see something big however the configuration of global events and make up of media scare is little too much.. However lets work on shorter parameters of 3780 on Comp and SPX 1435..to act..

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (33364)	9/21/2000 1:48:01 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

<<Denmark votes on whether or not to join the European economic community. If it decides the answer is "no", the Euro may put in a capitulation bottom.>> The chances of no answer are very high, my friends in Denmark are quite independent and really want nothing to do with the ECB, like UK skeptics a large majority is against EU, but market has been discounting that, today ECB statement is clear that it is more politics and less economy that is leading to pressure on Euro, one of that pressure is impending vote on Euro by Denmark, if we see a no we get to 85 support if we see a yes we can see a flight to 89.. On Russia's Rouble story I have my own observations one being that Russian default was the greatest threat to global secondry market debt, with Oil and commodity prices where they are Russians are the biggest benfactors and that default or rouble losing strength or being sold are considerably less, Europe like UK is benfitting cionsiderably from this Euro situation, the exports are higher and like UK will come out a continent with great economic strength in near future, the reason to let Euro down is clear victory of France over German camp and that has led to a manufacturing sector that is glowing of course the indirect benefactor would be US as productivity gains can only come by working on US model.. these are few observaqtions I have read but overall it is nice to see that we need to read carefully what is happening around us, in short term the selling survives until facts are known but the trend only gets hit if the fundamental story script goes haywire.. fwiw so far I see no signs of that .. only looking at that break which if comes will be an opportunity, sometime repeating this script on and on becomes so boring that I feel to just overlook the glaring inaccuracies but the fact is that shining spark of truth only comes out if we have clash of opinions.. one of this opinion would be wrong but to have an opinion is important..