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Strategies & Market Trends : Moguls Gold- A Thread That Thinks Like a Fund Manager -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (61)	9/22/2000 1:03:37 AM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 303

As for the mkt tomorrow in my opinion, well 3700 on the NAS there was some support, but by the look of the futures we are below that level by after-hour standards, which don't mean as much as people think at this point. So much Bearish tone out there, but expected in the wake of a Gorrillia falling from a tree. This game is 75% psycological in my eyes, thinking opposite the other guy sure has it's advantages, in fact many MM's ofton take the other side of a trade in spite of this theory. Anyhow.. As for tomm, there is no logical precedence, there may be a bounce sometime, there may not be...but in my estimation with the major indices, it usually does not go straight down and die without recovering for a bounce but anything is possible, no crystal ball here..... I have heard a lot of people on SI wanting to dive in at the open for a score on a lock and limit futures scenario..but I am not going to do it, no way. I will wait, watch and may make a day trade with a stop, but folks.... I don't realistically see a bottom tomm, or mon, and I for one I am sure not going to hold anything over the weekend, but for the good folks invested heavy in the mkt, I am hoping that we can capitulate in the next week or so. I find it intriguing that this week there were more mutual fund inflows then any other week of the year, just goes to show that many were betting on a very low cycle and decent entry point, well, they were off... off big. I had pleaded with cash consistently this week, but what is done is done. Would be interesting if the President relieved some oil reserves(not that i think this is the right thing to do in a non-war environment) but interesting in the theme of a potential short term intra-day mkt. reversal. On a more macro perspective, I have been contemplating, what Q4 earnings are going to look like when this oil debacle, and foreign exposure are going to do to some of these earnings reports, and overall national economy reports. I fathom that Greenspan is going to have to cut rates to save the Euro as well, as it is critical that it finds some kind of base and soon. Lets hope for the best tomorrow, and don't be a superstar thinking you got you stock at the 52wk low..because 90% says that you don't...heck big money was buying yesterday so are you any smarter? I fully expect analysts to come out defending stocks tomorrow... but I have pretty much had it with the fairy tales for now. Lets all hope for the best, and hey..woulden't it be interesting if we went green tomorrow(odds say no) but... can't happen you say? Well never say never.... as I type the Euro is up, unreal but true cme.com Protect those positions and be smart, go with your own personal feelings...just be cautious. On a optimistic note, historically for the techs my charts recollect that Sept and Oct. are decent intermediate entry points... but sometimes in the eye of the storm it is hard to see the shore. -Mogul