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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HoodBuilder who wrote (33414)	9/21/2000 10:36:24 PM
From: Jeff Jordan	Respond to of 50167

>>> we are approaching the worst month for the market, why in god's name do you people think we are going to hold 1437?<<< Michael, I never said I expected 1437 to hold. It was a support level based on Fibonnaci and past SPX movements. If you read all my posts carefully you would know my expressed concerns, hopes and fears as to market direction and trading by index levels. The market hasn't been trading on rational valuation models for over 8 months. Sentiment and fears have moved the markets since March. My hope was this support would hold and we go sideways until the market could stabilize. There are economic arguments for the markets to go in either direction. Now that we have this key catalyst, my sentiment is fairly bearish....I'm still basing my level on fibonacci...so, I'm looking for 1382 for support. I have been trying not to get excited and wait for the market to respond. I expected this market reaction the last time we hit 1438 in July, but the market turned on a dime to my amazement. Trading technical is what I believe in sprinkled w/ some fundamental and economic knowledge. I don't know any other way to approach the markets....I do believe there is an underlying threat of inflation in the economy...I wasn't happy when the Fed began it's rate hike cycle and the reasons given. the inflation that spiked in March was a result of the Fed printing Y2K money...people will argue that money was not placed in circulation...I would disagree and the credit taps were opened in the fall of '99 in preparation for any Y2K effects.Thus the rally. Greenspan has done a fairly good job in trying to cool the enthusiasm in the market. Greenspan has since changed his tune and admitted inflation was offset by productivity gains to his surprise.Then he admitted the economy could safely grow beyond 4% w/o the threat of inflation. So, now we have a "oil crisis" some of it manufactured the same way we that the inflation scare...however, thin supplies do not happen over night. There is plenty of blame to go around for the sudden situation that is now threatening the world prosperity. Some of it orchestrated for political gain in an election year....the jockeying continues with talk of releasing oil reserves. There are repercussions to every act when economic forces are put into play. Wallstreet thrives on the judgement of what will be the future effects of these actions...thus the volatility and uncertainty speculation brings...there are no easy answers...How we position ourselves is what is important with the best understanding we can derive at our means. I for one am in a constant state of confusion why things happen when they do....so, I'm not a good place to find answers. But, this is how I think...right or wrong...it's a good thing I'm only responsible for my money in this market. Jeff