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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eplace who wrote (9753)	9/22/2000 1:19:56 AM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

Ed, thanks for your summary, I could have saved myself 3 hours. Petz

To: eplace who wrote (9753)	9/22/2000 1:23:58 AM
From: fp_scientist	Respond to of 275872

Ed P., Re: 1)AMD may or may not have contributed to Intel's downturn in Europe. My guess is they did so in a big way. A sinking euro, historically high gasoline prices, fear of a recession, and political turmoil (especially in the UK) may all have contributed to consumers postponing computer purchases in the last few weeks. Intel has good excuses. I think that AMD has eaten away some market share from INTC in Europe ... no doubt in the high-end ... but that is not the whole story, just a piece of it. How big? It will take some time to sort it out.

To: eplace who wrote (9753)	9/22/2000 2:42:08 AM
From: peter_luc	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

eplace, OF COURSE Intel lost a lot of sales to AMD! Do you remember my frequent quotes of the daily top 10 bestseller list of the well known German online hardware vendor K&M Elektronik? Since I regularly check it, there has NEVER been an Intel chip on the bestseller list. AMD chips, however, are there almost all the time (today: TBird 800 is number 4, K6-2 500 number 10). You may well take it as an indication that AMD sells huuuuuge amounts of CPUs in Germany. Today, unfortunately, K&M reports that the TBird 1.1 GHz is sold out. Even the TBirds 950 and 850(!) are temporarily unavailable. That means that they are selling EVERYTHING they can get from AMD. As I already said earlier: AMD should allocate more processors to Germany! Of course, the situation is dangerous. For Intel will fight DESPERATELY with the P4. The P4 is Intel's last chance now. Almost unimaginable what would happen if the P4 fails (very unlikely, IMHO). In that case, Van Smith may have been right when he wrote an editorial last spring on Tom's Hardware Guide under the title "Intel - A Titan Falls". (He also wrote there that Intel's dramatic fall would take the whole stock market with it, leading to an incredible collapse. Is he a prophet?) Peter

To: eplace who wrote (9753)	9/22/2000 9:40:50 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

eplace: Thanks for the summary...Great perspective and accurate, methinks... Heard "the brain" this AM raise the spectre of whether INTC's problems were INTC specific or broader in scope...Reasons cited as possible INTC only spectre were the possibility of inroads by AMD and production problems with both the PWeeiii over the past year and, more recently, theP4... My wag on it is fairly straightforward...AMD's ASP's of $50 a year ago, are rising rapidly with the highly successful transition from K6 $50 ASP's to the $200 spry Athy ASP, while INTC's ASP's are at best flat and most likely dropping as the worn and fatigued PWeeiii is being put out to pasture by the "spry Athy"... AMD is looking at Y2001 with the very real prospect of completing the transition from low ASP K6's to high ASP "spry Athys and at the same time increasing overall production as Dresden ramps up from its current 30% capacity to 100% by the end of Y2001...Nice little double whammy at play here...Rising ASP's and rising units of production...and all that with a superior product!!! Although INTC will undoubtedly survive the Q3 downturn, it may be a while before their ASP's show any sign of any increase owing to the fact that not only is the consumer market now being divied up in low, medium and high ends, but so too, soon will be the workplace and server markets divies up...As that process unfolds throughout Y2001, it is unlikely that INTC will experience much strengthening in an already high ASP, but it is highly likely that AMD will continue to experience increasing ASP's and increasing shipments...