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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (9755)	9/22/2000 1:33:45 AM
From: david_langston	Respond to of 275872

Petz, Jerry has a muzzle on now and hasn't said anything... When Jerry is gone, I think we will get a lot less info from their CC's than we do now. The last CC was a prime example. Jerry was blurting out a lot of info that I think the rest of the management would rather have not released to the public. The rising semiconductor book to bill ratio That book-to-bill ratio was for semi equipment which although related to improving or very strong chip sales may be lagged up to three to six months from those sales. Chip sales could drop off a cliff this month, but capital equipment orders from the chip makers probably wouldn't slow until January at the earliest. I'm wary of using that ratio to predict continued strong chip sales. Dave

To: Petz who wrote (9755)	9/22/2000 1:41:20 AM
From: jamok99	Respond to of 275872

Petz, You make some very good points in your post. You also state: <<tricky wording? What's tricky about it. Isn't it better to sell 3M Athlons and 0.6M Durons? Revealing your goals even to that level of detail is giving more data than Intel ever does. They won't even say how many total CPU's they've sold after the fact! I wouldn't complain too loudly about the Duron infrastructure -- selling Athlons is more profitable! When cheap Duron mobo's are available, Durons will sell like hotcakes. Until then, they are a tough sell.>> But my point is not a comparison of AMD's forthrightness in their statements to Intel's statements (there's a strawman if I ever saw one! :-) I just don't think it's helpful for a company with a long history of suspect honesty to obscure problems. Sellling athlons is certainly better than selling Durons, as you state, but I think the way that was worded was to obscure the infrastructure problem. I would rather compare AMD's forthrightness with a company like EMC, which has an amazing record of shooting straight - frankly admitting when there's problem or vulnerabilities and outlining the solutions, and being quick on the draw with honest and factually-backed repsonses when analysts have made misleading or plain wrong statements - Such behavior has been rewarded with a reputation on the street where at this point the street often seems to give more credibility to EMC's pronouncements than to the analysts (eliminating a profound problem that plagues companies like AMD), and is also manifest by the fact that often the high and low estimates of analysts for EMC are within a very few cents of each other, and close to what actually gets announced - another trait that AMD could use to wring out the absurd volatility and uncertainty about performance that it's been prone to. Interesting to note that (well, until afterhours today) EMC has been hitting all-time highs while the tech sector in general is wreckage at the moment - I think it's partly attributable to the reputation for honesty and responsiveness that the company has built - no dancing around the facts, mostly just straight talk. jamok99