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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Red Dragon who wrote (4301)	9/22/2000 4:38:52 PM
From: EACarl	Respond to of 5482

Red Dragon, Congratulations on your predictions. Now, rather than simply point to the trend that has been obviously down at this point, perhaps you would be so bold as to state what you think the price bottom for KLIC will be. I'll be the first to admit the negative mentality by fear stricken technical types has brought us to this absurd low level, BUT, given that each and every month bookings continue to rise (as we saw with last nights book to bill news) the fundamentals are certainly not pointing to a sector disaster that the stock prices currently reflect. Since we are on the KLIC thread , I will use KLIC's prices in an example. At the bottom of the last down cycle which was widely accepted to be the worst down cycle in perhaps the history of most chip equipment companies, KLIC reached a low of around $4-$5. More recently KLIC hit a high of $43. We are currently at $14. Now, if we have another downcycle as bad as we were at in late 1998, I would admit that KLIC could go back to a level very close to that $4. BUT, to my knowledge, there isn't anyone expecting that (correct me here if you do expect that). For a minute, lets assume KLIC revenue and earnings are FLAT for the next few quarters and their earnings are around $2 per year. Ignoring the P/E, and comparing KLIC when it was a $4 stock at the bottom of the last cycle when it had negative earnings and bookings practically dried up, to now with $2 in earnings and still strong (yet flat bookings), surely you can see that the stock deserves to be significantly higher than that $4. So, since we are now at $14 and we shouldn't see $4, yet you still seem to indicate a continued downward trend, I'm curious as to what you opinion is for a price bottom and why it should be there. Perhaps I've been too wordy in making my point, but I hope you see where I'm trying to go with this post. Regards, Eric.