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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TechieGuy-alt who wrote (9908)	9/22/2000 2:24:40 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

TG, <But what are they going to fight with?> P4. Not in Q4 but in Q1. <850MHz may well be the entry level Thunderbird by Christmas.> We have a new speed grade due late September or early October, I believe. So, make 850 as entry level for October! <They will be fighting the sub $100 duron all the way from 600Mhz to 800Mhz.> It will be interesting to see if AMD ramps up Duron beyond 800MHz for Christmas. It would have been cool to ramp Duron to 900MHz when Athlon goes to 1.33 or 1.4GHz but due to power dissipation issues they may not. <The only speeds they will not have to fight will be below 600MHz, as AMD will not have any desktop chips at those speeds!> With KT133 volume kicking-in, you may well be right on this one but I would not be surprised to see K6s in the cost-sensitive desktop market for the far-east. <If they decide to fight with the P4, they will become capacity constrained again. > I wonder of Intel would like to have that problem instead of the over capacity problem it has now. <Additionally, if they discount a 1.4GHz chip, what are they going to sell the sub 1Ghz P3 for?> A $100 incentive on P4-1.4G will probably cost $100 and fetch Intel about $400 in Q4. A top of the line 1GHz PIII will probably cost $40 and fetch $300 in the same time-frame. The cost economics favor ramping P4 but it is unclear what the risk factor will be. If Intel ramps P4 hard and finds that motherboards are flaky or there are bugs in the chip, that could get very expensive. Chuck