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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick Buskey who wrote (59514)	9/22/2000 3:05:32 PM
From: The SPHINX	Respond to of 122087

May be not!!!! Those SOBs

To: Rick Buskey who wrote (59514)	9/22/2000 3:15:23 PM
From: The SPHINX	Respond to of 122087

DAMN DAMN!!! Oh well you lose some, then you lose some more!!!

To: Rick Buskey who wrote (59514)	9/22/2000 3:25:59 PM
From: The SPHINX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 122087

Anybody watching VYTL

To: Rick Buskey who wrote (59514)	9/22/2000 3:41:49 PM
From: Fundamentls	Respond to of 122087

Still in MANU. Looking at the Talus deal, they must have been starstruck. There is no way Talus is worth $366 million, although it's a very good company. I've watched Talus a long time, and have done estimates of revenue and earnings for competitors and potential buyers. My revenue estimate for on the money was right on the money (the reported $40 mil), my profit estimate (which can't be validated from the PR) was $4-6 million after tax. That works out to a P/E ratio in the range of 60-90. Talus is the giant in its industry and is growing only with thie industry, about 15-20% per year by my estimates (which are based on employee counts, pretty reliable for a consulting business). The revenue maximization industry is not fully mature but well along its development path in the largest end-user markets. It's hard to see them growing much faster than that over the next 5-10 years especially since most of their revenue base is highly technical consulting services in a maturing market. I think Talus was probably worth $100 million, $125 tops. A far cry from the $366 million MANU is paying. When we do see the financials I may have reason to adjust those estimates upwards, but I don't see how we could ever get to $366 million without far more robust growth than Talus has had. MANU might go up a bit more, but sooner or later it's gonna get stomped. This was a great deal for Bob Cross, Dean Boyd, and the other Talus founders and shareholders, but not great for MANU holders. Regards, Fund