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To: Eric Wells who wrote (108842)	9/22/2000 4:38:23 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Erci: "in a state of utter confusion as to the direction of the market" That is probably an accurate reflection of the state of things. Let me offer you my take: 1. Something on the order of a recession -- at least a serious slowdown -- is on the horizon. This is a slowdown with many dimensions -- sales and earnings being key here. It is poison for stocks. 2. Lower multiples will prevail as this slowdown is priced into the market either all at once or stock by stock. INTC investors can attest to this. 3. Speculation flows both ways -- there was a big short position waiting to cover. Lots of frothy stocks got a good pop today. Looks like short-covering -- this increases the odds of a continued downtrend as it is more likely to be a one day rally. That makes today a selling opportunity. 4. A market openning at -200 can easily be mistaken for capitulation. Again, firing cash into a down market is cash burned for nothing. 5. There could have been a one time central bank injection of liquidity fired into the market coordinated with the attempt to get the Euro off its deathbed and the talk of strategic oil reserves coming into play to cool the oil market - both hopeless attempts to push the market where it does not yet want to go. This is political BS of the worst order. But you cannot blame Gore for preferring to avoid a stock market meltdown just before the election. Can't have that. Conclusion? October could be very cruel to investors. Cash is a good place to be until things get sorted out.

To: Eric Wells who wrote (108842)	9/22/2000 5:29:15 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

More on the Euro and oil biz.yahoo.com