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Non-Tech : Conseco Insurance (CNO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (3081)	9/22/2000 4:49:04 PM
From: AK2004	Respond to of 4155

01:35pm EDT 22-Sep-00 Salomon Smith Barney (Colin Devine 212-816-1682) CNC LEH CNC: EXPECT ANNOUNCEMENT OF SUCCESSFUL BANK DEBT EXTENSION SALOMON SMITH BARNEY Conseco, Inc. (CNC)# CNC: EXPECT ANNOUNCEMENT OF SUCCESSFUL BANK DEBT 3H (Neutral, High Risk) EXTENSION Mkt Cap: $2,801.3 mil. September 22, 2000 SUMMARY * Anticipate CNC will announce it has successfully INSURANCE--LIFE extended through 2003, with option to 2005, $1.4B of Colin Devine bank debt maturing by month's end, thereby avoiding 212-816-1682 potential Chapter 11 filing. colin.devine@ssmb.com * While this in isolation would be good news for shareholders, unable to speculate on either terms of new bank facilities, or cost of getting Lehman Brothers# (LEH, 1H, $141.50) to agree to modifying its control of cash flow distribution at Conseco Finance. * Given what will remain cash flow constraints at holding company until such time as significant asset liquidations can be completed, would not be surprised to see elimination of current $0.05 per share quarterly common dividend. * No change to 3H rating, as continue to expect significant recapitalization which, coupled with earnings uncertainties at life and consumer finance operations, makes analysis of share's current valuation very uncertain. FUNDAMENTALS P/E (12/00E) 13.3x P/E (12/01E) 8.6x TEV/EBITDA (12/00E) NA TEV/EBITDA (12/01E) NA Book Value/Share (12/00E) $16.60 Price/Book Value 0.5x Dividend/Yield (12/00E) $0.20/2.3% Revenue (12/00E) $9,166.5 mil. Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth 5% ROE (12/00E) 5.0% Long-Term Debt to Capital(a) 46.7% CNC is in the S&P 500(R) Index. (a) Data as of most recent quarter SHARE DATA . RECOMMENDATION Price (9/21/00) $8.63 Current Rating 3H 52-Week Range $24.38-$4.63 Prior Rating 3H Shares Outstanding(a) 324.6 mil. Current Target Price $5.00 Convertible No Previous Target Price $5.00 EARNINGS PER SHARE FY ends 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Year 12/99A Actual $0.91A $0.84A $0.80A $0.64A $3.21A 12/00E Current $0.30A ($0.09)A $0.19E $0.25E $0.65E Previous $0.30A ($0.09)A $0.19E $0.25E $0.65E 12/01E Current NA NA NA NA $1.00E Previous NA NA NA NA $1.00E 12/02E Current NA NA NA NA NA Previous NA NA NA NA NA First Call Consensus EPS: 12/00E $0.65; 12/01E $1.03; 12/02E NA