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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (33554)	9/22/2000 8:44:52 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 50167

GZ: A couple of points. the guy must think we're all idiots..... / If you look at the average american (80% of the population) they will believe what is thrown out and picked up by the press. So many are idiots. They don't look at the long term consequences and frankly if I was in their shoes I'd do the same. You can worry about filling it back tomorrow at hopefully lower prices. I would think 1Mb/day is significant to the price / barrel. Now I don't know how much this has already been priced into the market since Gore wouldn't have made his speech if he didn't know Clinton was going to pull the trigger. cbs.marketwatch.com My understanding is we use appx 20M / day and import 10 M per day. With refinerys at capacity this means 1M diverted to Europe or Asia which would have come here. We still have a delivery problem with tankers in short supply (Lloyds no longer insures tankers over 15 years old so bring out of moth ball is not an option). It will take 2 to 3 weeks to start delivery. Then for 4 weeks the pumps are primed. Then we have the election & if necessary I'd bet another 30M can come out for Bill's last month. So this added supply will impact oil prices. Is it a short term fix? Yes Can it cause national security issues? Yes if not corrected. Will it impact natural gas. No I'm quite bullish on natural gas. Al the new power plants and no drilling due to low prices. Of course this doesn't mean we don't get a knee jerk reaction to natural gas until the first cold snap. Just some thoughts. I like the oil service companies and natural gas providers in the sector. Still plenty of room to run unless we hit a recession. Tim

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (33554)	9/22/2000 8:45:09 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

GZ: A couple of points. the guy must think we're all idiots..... / If you look at the average american (80% of the population) they will believe what is thrown out and picked up by the press. So many are idiots. They don't look at the long term consequences and frankly if I was in their shoes I'd do the same. You can worry about filling it back tomorrow at hopefully lower prices. I would think 1Mb/day is significant to the price / barrel. Now I don't know how much this has already been priced into the market since Gore wouldn't have made his speech if he didn't know Clinton was going to pull the trigger. cbs.marketwatch.com My understanding is we use appx 20M / day and import 10 M per day. With refinerys at capacity this means 1M diverted to Europe or Asia which would have come here. We still have a delivery problem with tankers in short supply (Lloyds no longer insures tankers over 15 years old so bring out of moth ball is not an option). It will take 2 to 3 weeks to start delivery. Then for 4 weeks the pumps are primed. Then we have the election & if necessary I'd bet another 30M can come out for Bill's last month. So this added supply will impact oil prices. Is it a short term fix? Yes Can it cause national security issues? Yes if not corrected. Will it impact natural gas. No I'm quite bullish on natural gas. Al the new power plants and no drilling due to low prices. Of course this doesn't mean we don't get a knee jerk reaction to natural gas until the first cold snap. Just some thoughts. I like the oil service companies and natural gas providers in the sector. Still plenty of room to run unless we hit a recession. Tim