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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BUYandHOLD who wrote (110950)	9/23/2000 7:08:13 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

B&H, "Roadkill", is that above a "sell" and below an "accumulate" rating? John

To: BUYandHOLD who wrote (110950)	9/23/2000 11:55:26 AM
From: Eric K.	Respond to of 186894

Re: AMD is "Roadkill". (His exact words, not mine) And you'd better believe Kumar when he sticks his neck out!! This is very true. I found Ashok's comments-- at the beginning of 2000-- about AMD's "overhead resistance" (from the convertible debt) at $18 split-adjusted ending the stock's appreciation particularly prescient. -Eric

To: BUYandHOLD who wrote (110950)	9/23/2000 2:43:39 PM
From: EricRR	Respond to of 186894

And you'd better believe Kumar when he sticks his neck out!! Didn't Ashkok "upgrade" (mouth off) Intel to trading buy a few days ago? What's really funny is that, when asked back on the day of his original downgrade why he still rated Intel a "buy," he said that he expected upside in 2H 2001 from Itanium. Then yesterday, when asked if he still thought Intel was a good long term investment, he said yes, citing upside in 2H 2001 from the migration to 0.13u. I give ashkok credit for being one of the few analysts to resists Intel's use of investment gains in earnings in the last quarter. But his visceral antipathy toward AMD has really colored his judgement. BTW, I read that Intel expects gains from investments to be higher then expected this quarter, at 900 million. That's 13 cents a share on an expected earnings of 41 cents a share- %30. After Friday, Intel’s PE is now 30, but that still leaves Intel's non investment PE at 45. Considering that: 1) None of Intel's non CPU divisions are profitable, 2) Intel owns %85 percent of the CPU market, 3) Intel makes over %50 gross margins on its cpu side,and is now facing its strongest competitive threat in 15 years. 4) Intel has given up its chipset leadership, in a perhaps yet futile attempt, to pacify the up and coming Taiwanese. 5) Itanium is a dog. 6) Timna (unless it was secretly redesigned for notebooks) is a dog. 7) Willy design, once a sure winner, is now an unknown. And even in the best case, Willy won't ship in volumes until 2H 2001. 7) !!!! If Intel bungles its dual transition to 0.13u and copper, AMD will become (god forbid) the industry MPU leader. Intel claims that this will happen in Q3 2001. That time frame is almost fiction, and having a real volume ramp by the start of 2002 might even be a source of uncertainty. First Intel must do Coppermine from Al .18 to Al .13. Then Coppermine from Al .13 to Cu .13. Ditto for Willy and Itanium. If my memory serves me correctly, Intel's new lasers are set to arrive (in volume) at the end of Q1 2001. Good Luck! Lets see what AMD must do in the same time frame: 1)Covert from Cu .18 to Cu .13 using the same equipment in the Dresden Fab. 2)Convince chipset partners to actually manufacture chips for which there are already designs, and for which their profit margins are higher than for Intel compatible parts, (check pricewatch). (Counter point is that the smaller monkeys fear abuse from the Alpha male) 3)Convince OEMS to ship lower priced higher performance parts. (Counter point again is that the smaller monkeys fear abuse from the Alpha male) 4)!!!Convince business users accept "AMD inside." This is the toughest. But all the free publicity AMD is getting from the "why did Intel miss debate" surely helps!