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To: Paul Moerman who wrote (81333)	9/23/2000 2:33:53 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Thoughts on last Friday's market action: A group of penguins will stand on the edge of the ice flow. They are hungry, and want to jump in the water and go catch some fish. But there might be Orcas in there, waiting to get the first penguin that jumps in. So they all stand at the edge, shuffling from foot to foot, looking sideways at each other, screeching and arguing, waiting for someone else to go in first and prove the waters are safe. Finally, someone dumber or hungrier than the others jumps in, or maybe someone in back pushes the front one in. Or maybe his wife told him to come back with the biggest fish, or not come back at all. Lots of different motivations. Everyone else gets alert, watching to see what's going to happen next. When the first penguin comes up safely with a fish (the biggest fish) in his teeth, there is a sudden mad rush to join him. By the time the last penguins jump in, all the fish are gone. Of course, if it's an Orca that comes up, with the bravest penguin in his teeth, then they all back away from the edge, and go back to waiting. In a while, when everyone is hungrier, the screeching and arguing begin again. The first and last penguins in, are the least likely to leave descendants. The best strategy is to be the second penguin in the water.