Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (28416)	9/24/2000 10:20:29 AM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69827

can anyone confirm those were the only times the signal fired. In other words, are there many false positives? I take this warning very seriously and would like to know more about the statistical accuracy of it. It is not enough to say the signal fired each time a major recession was going to occur, if this siganl also fires every time a major crack up boom was going to occur. Not that I believe such a boom will occur but, I just don't want to follow signals with blind faith.

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (28416)	9/24/2000 2:59:11 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69827

I believe that we are very definitely nearing the end of another economic cycle. The signs are everywhere and are easily discerned in the sector performance over the last 6 months. The only high technology sector that has performed well is the Biotechnology Sector. This is a sector that can hardly be measured by earnings growth in the sector. I believe we have another 3 to 4 months where the market itself is in a very high risk situation. Why? It's simply because the FED will not lower interest rates until after we have a new president in office. High energy prices are going to slow the economy further and eventually Mr. Greenspan will realize that those high prices do not really constitute actual inflation. If I am wrong and we do not get an interest rate decrease early next year then the result could be catastrophic to the markets. It does not matter that INTC may have missed earnings due as much to competition from AMD as a slowdown in Europe, what we saw on Friday is a scared market. What really matters is that all high technology companies have been valued on extremely high growth rates that will not accelerate as quickly in a high interest rate environment. Short term it is probable that the Nasdaq will return to the 4200 to 4300 level before we really have to worry about the major drop that could be coming. Just my 2 cents! RTS

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (28416)	9/24/2000 3:31:54 PM
From: rich987	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69827

hi tim........yes there are a lot of worries out there.....and its difficult to predict the future....i think the elections are key in the short term......wall st. likes a balanced act and the question is whether or not we shall see that after the election one way or the other......i think if it is not balanced, i think wall st would prefer a republican weigthed scenio.......time will tell......regarding the currency imbalance against the euro......the governments involved must rescue that situation as they have done before in world markets......there really is not a choice......its good that the euro has been implemented and now we must stabilize it in times of difficulty.........the oil is another issue.....i think the U.S. has put itself in a dangerous position in that it has to rely on external sources for energy........we should strategically change this posture for our own good long term........From a market viewpoint, one must pick stocks carefully but it is still a good time....there are many still up and proceeding well even though the market is nervous and slightly depressed.......i would suspect a bounce as soon as warnings are out of the way and the good earnings commence.......then caution is the word thru elections.......evidence has been building for rates to come down in the next 6 months except for this currency resolve which is slightly inflationary.....have a good week rich

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (28416)	9/24/2000 7:51:38 PM
From: IA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69827

Hello Tim, Thanks for posting that info. Isn't Don Hayes a Point and Figure analyst as well ? I was wondering if you had any idea of the severity and /or duration of the sell-off he expects following "the sign of the bear " ? Peak to trough I think the DJIA went from about 960 to 669 in July '70, while the 98 sell-off was about a 15% decline over a much more compressed period. Also has Hayes been bearish for a while ? Every now and then I read Fleckenstein ( Fleckstein link siliconinvestor.com, but then again, he has been bearish since 1995. Thanks, ~Inder