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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DepyDog who wrote (3416)	9/24/2000 11:19:14 AM
From: Voltaire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Man they dont ever get it ! sotiris_k1 9/22/00 8:09 am Anyone who started buying intel 10-20 below its all time high and who might be telling himself/herself today that they were wrong will find comfort to look back in time and see what happened each time the stock gets a 38% tsunami. In the end its a minor detail if you bought at 65 or 55 or 50 when 18 months later the stock is 80% higher on the average and often 200% up. The long term future of intel has nothing to do with missing 1 2 or 15 cents if it came down to it. The long term future of intel stems from the fact it is making 9 bil$ it has 2 times that in portfolio and tangible-easily-liquidated assets and the basic understanding that this world is going nowhere without computing power in extremelly large scale and numbers and intel will be there for quite some time with margins well over a critical 50% level that nobody large like GE or other multinationals enjoys . Pc growth or not is irrelevant in the big picture. We heard about this in 97 98 99 00 and we will continue to hear. Who cares. The company is moving to segments that relate to the infrastructure of the internet. It is a fact in 2000 global ecomonies have suffered for a number of reasons. Oil, lack of liquidity by bs games from the various feds,interest rates to fight a ghost of inflation that was never there and other related bs concepts. Its inevitable there would be some softening short term on corporate profits in this transitioning environment. All this is totally irrelevant to the future because the future of intel has nothing to do with wheather it will grow 10% quarter to quarter this year or 5% . Go back and research earnings patterns and see how volatile they are and see if it made sense to gauge long term trajectory from quarter to quarter moves. Earnings volatility on intel is similar to the stock's or 40% and they grow over long past periods at 30%. You know what this means for those that understand ITO processes such as the processes of stock prices or their earnings? It means there is a 30% chance you can have a flat year just like that. So once in every 3 years intel will appear to have flat earnings while in the long term picture it is still growing at 30% . Go ahead make that 25% or 20% for the next decade. But dont forget that huge intel portfolio while at it!!!Dont forget short term earnings volatility will always blind the "analysts" into the idea the end is coming. The big picture is and will remain to be exponential for the reason i have posted so many times in better happier moments this year and also in the darkest moments of 97 98 99 at prices way lower than today. The same dates that educated idiots were again downgrading the stock only to see 100-200% rallies thereafter in reasonable time. SEmi analysts will never get the big picture or simply they do get it very well and they just play the game to steal shares from all the weak hands they sell them to when upgrading at 2sd. 76 to 48? What a joke when it can happen to the best of them all. And for what? They cant see how idiotic it is to project long term growth based on short term quarter volatility. What will be the case if euro gets to 1.05 now and European economies revive themselves, oil crashes to 25$ and interest rates start dropping? Get the picture? They always think the worse is at the bottom and we have seen "the Top" but the truth is there is never "The Top" when your game involves e=2.718281828.... Just look at the corner up left on this club and you have all the joke the downgrades of this stock have been proven to be time and time again.