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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stcgg who wrote (48599)	9/24/2000 9:09:06 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill, Sorry for the late response to your last post,but I have been in the Alaskan bush for the last 17 days. It was wonderful - I actually forgot what the day and date was for over 2 weeks. I agree with your warnings. No major vix spike! Fear must replace complacency for a major bottom. Pre-announcements still have 3 weeks to go - look what INTC has done !! Vix spikes usually develope with a double spike test and failure - 26 is a long way from the panic of 50-60. This has all the looks of a sucker punch up followed by lower prices.The generals are getting slaughtered and that marks the move of a bottom - but they have just begun the mark down. Many times in the past I've moaned if only I'd sold out I could buy an AMAT,INTC,TER,NVLS at the price I sold my secondary stocks at( Cohu ). I don' see these blue chips bottoming , rather I see them beginning to weaken again. Monday will have to be the mother of all rally's to reverse the negative damage created by friday's vacuum( amat,nvls,ter,cohu). Your SCY data appears to be signaling the longer term trend as it filters out the short term noise.Have you ever done any regression analysis for time lags? Bob